Another missed barrel? Or river bluff?
Literally the hand immediately after the last one I posted.
PokerStars, $91.80 + $8.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (60 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat
UTG: 28,261 (57 bb)
MP: 46,578 (93 bb)
MP+1: 44,646 (89 bb)
CO (Hero): 43,960 (88 bb)
BU: 70,239 (140 bb)
SB: 41,795 (84 bb)
BB: 73,426 (147 bb)
Pre-Flop: (1,170) Hero is CO with K♥ A♣
2 players fold, MP+1 raises to 1,100, Hero 3-bets to 2,500, 3 players fold, MP+1 calls 1,400
No idea why my 3b was so small, probably a misclick with several windows open or a mouse-wheel issue. I would normally go to 3500 or so here.
Flop: (6,170) 3♦ 9♠ 6♥ (2 players)
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 2,000, MP+1 calls 2,000
Dry flop, I have range advantage, seems like a standard small CB spot. Plan is to barrel most turns.
Turn: (10,170) J♦ (2 players)
MP+1 checks, Hero checks
This is one of the few turns I didn't want to see because it connects with a lot of his range that includes backdoors around the 9. He can easily pick up draws here along with pairing the J. I opted for the check-back because I have showdown/bluffcatch value and can pair my A/K...though looking at it now I realize paring my K might not be so great. So I'm wondering if this is a large barrel spot to put pressure on the part of his range that isn't top pair.
River: (10,170) T♥ (2 players)
MP+1 checks, Hero checks
Flush draws miss but the river card completes some straights and 2P. However, he doesn't bet. I have no reason to think he's going for a x/r here since I didn't barrel the turn, so it seems he's capping his range. Is this a clear river overbet bluff? In terms of polarizing, I could certainly play KQ or JJ/TT this way for value.
12 Replies
I think this is a bluffing situation, and probably theory does say to over bet. But in practice, I would rather make around a 2/3 sized bet, as human players often interpret that as a thin value bet, while the over bet looks bluffier.
I don't think I check back the river, because I don't see AK having much showdown value with this board.
I agree that the pre-flop raise should have been larger. I always 3-bet to 3x in position so it won't reflect on the strength of my hand.
I like the flop cbet
I would always bet the turn because the J is good for our range too. We can have AJ/QQ+. If Villain has a PP here like 88/77 or even TT they might fold to a bet.
As played betting the river is tricky. We can have TT. Not sure we would 3 bet a lot with KQ but it is possible. And with hands like ATs we would probably check back. We already admitted we don't have AJ... I think I check it back because we do beat AQ which likely wouldn't call. And I don't think we are going to get hands like AT/KT/QT to fold.
I think turn is either a give up or bet turn with intention to barrel river as well. Not sure I like autonomously betting the turn as a lot of his hands that call on flop might get sticky on turn anyway (A6s, 77,88, 9x etc) however, all of those hands are likely to fold to a triple so think your line is fine but if you choose to bet turn it's gotta be with a triple in mind. Would just focus on which portions of their range you're making them fold. A lot of people barrel turn feeling obligated to do so as opposed to thinking of what part of villain's range they're actually targeting. People are getting stickier on turn so I would expect a few more calls and as a result probably double less but triple more (at least this may be more the case live than online)
So looks like the vote so far is that I did miss a turn barrel, and I should probably prepare to triple.
I have to be honest I don't have much triple-barreling in my game but I might be giving turn calls too much credit. I'll have to start paying closer attention to how sticky this population is on the turn.
So either you check this down on the turn or go bet bet. I'd check - I don't think people fold enough here with a hand like 88 and you end up getting tank called most of the time.
If you’re going to bet this river having checked turn you need to make it big and hope villain left his cape at home.
I’d be inclined to check back and take the expected or the relief of seeing AQ since the other AX all got there and his pairs all win anyway.
I'd guess theory would say we'd like to have a diamond in our hand for a turn barrel. This hand has some showdown, so continuing to bluff, while probably ok is at most a mix...
Checking a quick solve, this is right. Diamonds always barrel. No diamonds mix.
If you're going to bet this river having checked turn you need to make it big and hope villain left his cape at home.
I'd be inclined to check back and take the expected or the relief of seeing AQ since the other AX all got there and his pairs all win anyway.
That's why I checked behind on the river, I don't think I can rep good value after checking turn.
This theory stuff is all well and good, but against most players you want to just try to exploit. These considerations are far more outweighed by how your opponent plays.
That being said, it is quite important to look for the bluffs when you block their obvious continues, and that is the main reason you want a diamond here. Having the nut blocker on the river doesn't matter nearly as much, as most rivers won't complete the flush.
