Another multiway spot out of the BB
Another hand from the $50 WSOPC on GG Ontario. Getting pretty late now but unfortunately I can't recall if this is close to the bubble or ITM yet, so let's assume it isn't.
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 1,500/3,000 (350 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat
UTG: 42,699 (14 bb)
UTG+1: 93,863 (31 bb)
MP: 53,327 (18 bb)
MP+1: 295,415 (98 bb)
CO: 49,780 (17 bb)
BU: 227,268 (76 bb)
SB: 66,870 (22 bb)
BB (Hero): 77,710 (26 bb)
Pre-Flop: (7,300) Hero is BB with Q♠ J♠
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 6,000, 1 fold, BTN calls 6,000, 1 fold, Hero calls 3,000
Flop: (22,300) 5♦ 7♣ J♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 7,359, BU folds, Hero calls 7,359
SPR is about 3 and I flop TP with a decent kicker but no redraws with a flush draw on board. Is this a donk and try to get it in spot? Donk and plan to shove most turns? Check with the plan to x/r? Do I want to risk giving them both a free turn card? With another big stack in the hand and a multiway pot, I have to imagine HJ will shut down with the worst of his range but might bet most of it. Should villain be going larger with certain parts of his range, like QQ/KK? Does the small size suggest a hand that isn't as concerned about denying equity, like AA or AJ (esp with a diamond), or big diamond draws?
Turn: (37,018) 8♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 checks
The turn card is much better for my BB defense range than it is for his, and given how much he outstacks me and the fact that the SPR is only about 2, I would expect him to barrel with good value. So the check behind looks like a hand that stabbed and is shutting down (AK/AQ/KQ), or value that is really hoping to get to showdown (JT/J9, or maybe TT/99).
River: (37,018) K♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 checks
Ugh, the K is one of the two cards I really didn't want to see. Thankfully he checks behind. Suppose villain fires 20k here, does anyone make the call?
4 Replies
Donking the flop and jamming turn is a fun line here. I think you can do it with all of your draws, two pair hands, sets, AJ, and KJ. I wouldn’t take this line with JT. QJ is on the border for me. If you were a tiny bit shorter I would feel better about it with QJ.
I think if you can get a sense of how many suited Jx the villain is opening, you can adjust your donking range accordingly. We can double up against J7-JT with the donk flop and jam turn line. Maybe some 99 and TT hands as well. Also can get paid by the villain’s diamond draws that turn like 2nd pair if they’re too sticky.
I like your check/call on the flop. I basically rarely donk on the flop (I am inclined to do it HU from the BB when the flop contains no cards > 9 but even then I rarely donk - the last time I donked I flopped a straight with A4 on a 532 flop and the both guys in the hand folded). Here I think if we donk we will always be called by better hands and all draws. Not sure about 66/88/99/TT. Those hands might call the donk and might fold. The question is would they cbet? My guess is that sometimes they cbet and then check back the turn without improvement and sometimes they would check back the flop and call a turn bet or make a turn bet if we check again. On the other hand when we check the flop HU there will be cbets on this flop most of the time. So we will be ahead a lot (probably more than half the time).
On the turn I think there will be a lot of checks with hands that we are still behind. The reason is that 64/T9/87/J8/88 all hit and would now be ahead and are more in our range than his. Villain is admitting that he has none of those hands (his other than 88 would be suited) but still I think we could be behind.
The river is a good check. I don't think I would call a 20k river bet because it is a solid value bet sizing. I would likely call a blocking bet of like 8k or 9k and lose. A bet of 37k though would be a tough choice for me because it is polarizing. Given that it would mean we would have 9 blinds left my first reaction would be to fold. However I think I would call if my sense of Villain is that he is balanced in terms of bluffs (like he is aggro/GTO/Solver kind of Villain). There are a lot of missed draws that didn't get there. As well as some PP's < JJ. And some flat out flop bluffs (like AQ/AT/AXs/KT/K9s/QT/Q9s/etc.)
I had a similar hand in Prague where I flopped top pair with QJs on a Q75 flop with a flush draw. I had raised preflop and called a 3-bet against a young guy except it was one of the first tournaments I played at Rebuy Stars Luka and I didn't realize he was likely a GTO/Solver type of guy. I called the flop cbet which was 1/3 pot. The turn was a K and I check called his 1/3 pot bet again. The river was a small card (I don't remember what but the flush didn't get there) and I checked and he bet 20,000 which was like a pot sized bet and over half my remaining stack. It would have left me shortish (like 1/5 starting stack). I folded and he showed me 88 to tilt me and it worked. I got knocked out soon after.
if we're not near the money this could be a good spot to squeeze shove.
I would just make a large 3b - 25-30k to potentially fold out better hands rather than jam. Either way I wouldn't call - you have two players with somewhat weak ranges and a lot of dead money currently in the pot to pick up uncontested.