Help me range villain here

do you think he thinks you fold too seldom or too often?

do whatever exploits that

dont think I fold this one but who tf knows

nice 3b btw

fold QQ before T9s? Think it's a reasonable question to ask...

No idea, it's very early and we haven't been at the table together very long. But I think population generally doesn't make this move expecting (or wanting) a call. I'm trying to nail down his range to do the equity calc on the call.

I didn't 3b, I just raised the limper. I see quite a bit of limping in this population.

I assume you're asking about QQ vs T9s because I block the nut straight and some of his draw+pair combos? I'm just not sure the blockers have much of an impact on his range in this spot.

I would fold - there's so many combos on this board that are either ahead or have great equity against you.

and because you have more outs if he's doing this with, say, 65, or even something like 98. It's unlikely he takes this line with A9/TT/JJ, I'd think, which are really the only hands where QQ has an advantage over T9.

What about something like AA w/ a heart. Is a heart better or worse? What if he now also 3bets all JJ+.

Someone jamming 7s,8s doesn't seem that crazy if he just doesn't wanna deal with it, Also ppl love just jamming the nuts like JT even if you block it...

I think you can definitely fold a lot of good hands here vs most ppl.

In general I used to think that people only over jam on the flop in spots like these when they have a draw. Because they are likely +EV or close. But one time a guy did it I called with TPTK and he had bottom set. I do think plays like that are not common but they are out there.

Here the issue is that the board is very dicey and there are a lot of turns that can stop everything. Like a heart or a J/T/9/8/7/6/5. So my guess is that 65 is going to be a big part of Villain's range. Also two pairs or even sets (these are less likely because Villain did not raise pre-flop). I would also mix in a bunch of double draws. I don't think Villain has TT+ because Villain would have raised preflop instead of limping. Villain might do this with JT trying to make it look like a draw.

I fold here because I don't like the outcome if we lose. My guess is that Villain thinks we have an overpair because we cbet on a flop that does not favor our range. So I am leaning towards a we are behind scenario. Best case is likely slightly +EV vs double draws.

I would absolutely be more threatened by the shove if it were a more understandable size, like 5k. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to be shoving strength here, but I am seriously discounting it.

But let's be honest, if villain is the kind of player to shove strength here because he's scared of all the turn cards, he could also be the kind of player to flat TT/JJ preflop.

In any case, let's do the calc and see what we come up with. By my math, Hero has to call 8905 to win 20,144, so we need about 44% equity.

Let's be fairly generous and give him the following range:
Axhh, KThh+, QThh+, 64hh, Ah9/Ah8/Ah7, 65s, 66-TT, 98s/97s/87s

That gives us almost a coinflip at 47.7% equity. If we take sets out of his range but leave the 65 straight and 2P combos, we actually have the edge at 51%. So we're basically flipping for a chance to come out of the hand with either 450bb or 35bb.

totally assumption dependent, right?

Suppose he does this with only:

• most vulnerable value (2pr and sets?)

• highest equity bluffs (nut flush draws, combo draws)
  

possible Ah blocker becomes disadvantageous then

People who limp are not necessarily just going to limp 65s. I think we have to include all 65o and all JTo in the range here. Same with 98o/87o hands. I would not include TT and probably 99 because I don't think there are a lot of limps with those hands. I also can't believe anyone would jam with 66 here.

I think TT/JJ are very likely to be played this way pre by many players given the stack depths. And I'm far from sure all players will call 5bb pre with the blinds and mp1 left to act with a hand like A7hh (he obv can't have A9/A8hh) and then be willing to invest all of his 165bb OTF.

I would also mostly expect a player who make overcalls with hands like QThh to play it more passive OTF here. Call your bet and see what happens OTT.

I believe that in this type of odd situations it's very hard in reality to make a good guess about the villain's range. It's perfectly possible it might just be JJ-77 (because QQ+ would 3-bet pre), which would leave us as a devastating 27-73 underdog if we call.

Maybe I'm too nitty here, but I also think that the value of doubling up this early on in the tournament might not compensate for the loss when you get semi-crippled. So while it might be at least slightly +ev if you just count it in chips it might not in T$. So I would probably fold here. I also would consider checking or betting smaller OTF, because we really hate to get raised here. And the nature of our hand also make us less inclined to bet for protection in a situation where both villains have hands in their ranges that have us beaten ATM.

Villain isn't the limper in this hand.

So I decided to make the call and villain showed K9ss.

But I was surprised to see how close the call is even without including hands like this in his range.