Fold Set or Call All-In?

Call, you have a set.

I did call, pretty much instantly. He had QJ for a flopped straight and the runout was no help to me. I got to thinking about it afterward and started thinking about combos. There are 16 combos of QJ, right? Then there are other combos that he would lose with, AQ (12 combos, correct?) and worse Aces, but would he have shoved with those? And he would have 3 bet preflop with AA or KK, so I could rule those out, correct? So with all those combos against me, should I have folded, or at least thought about it a little before calling?

Too shallow to really consider it. SPR of about 3. If he has it he has it, but he could be getting in significantly wider than the nuts. You're crushing a lot of hands and 35% against the one hand in his range that beats you.

**** happens sometimes. Looking for reasons to fold big hands is not a recipe for winning poker.

What Nath says. Call, and its not close.

I note when you are thinking of his combos, you are not even considering bluffs, (and we don't know the suits).

If you fold this, I wonder what hands you would call with? Literally only QJ?

Good points, thanks. As I say, at the time, I insta-called, but had second thoughts later, as one does sometimes when s*** happens.

Yes I get it, there is always a tinge of regret when it happens like that, but its all part and parcel of tournament poker so I'm afraid we just have to suck it up!

Even if he flips over the QJ before you call you have to call here. Your odds are about 34.4% to win on the flop (assuming no BDFD for either of you). He is raising your 4,000 bet by about 11,500. There is 14,000 already in the pot so your call of 11,500 has potential to win 25,500. You are getting like a 4% cushion of +EV. The point at which it would be -EV is roughly at a 20,000 all in raise (so you would have to call with 16,000).

Because of the bet sizing (which I am good with by the way) Villain has no choice but to jam if he is raising. So QJ would be a standard jam here. But so might a flush draw especially if there is a pair and/or gutter. You don't say whether the flop is a rainbow, has 2 of one suit, or is a monotone with 3 of one suit (where Villain could have a flush). Personally I don't think that AQ/AJ without a flush draw would jam (because you would fold if you were bluffing so they wouldn't make as much as when they let you try to bluff again) but some people might jam AQs/AJs with a BDFD (though these hands would sometimes 3-bet preflop).

Thanks for the insights. FYI, the flop was rainbow, as I recall.