ITM spot with A8s and only 5bb
500 out of 7000 left, UTG with 30bb (which is also an average stack) min-raises, im UTG+1 with A8s and 5bb… my thoughts were that although being on the verge of dying, I cannot have a better hand than he has. What’s yours?
1 Reply
Eh, that's tough. You certainly can have a better hand, as UTG is going to be opening a lot of Broadway hands, and should be opening any suited ace. Against my best attempt to analyze an ICM-appropriate range, you're a bit over 45%.
Problem is you're about to hit the BB and if you can't find a hand in the blinds, you're going to be under 3.5BB the next orbit. You're not going to have any fold equity at that point and no guarantee of getting a decent hand.
It sucks with so many players behind you (how many are at the table? UTG/9 and UTG/7 are different ranges), but I'm not sure there's a better spot for you. The extra money from the blinds and antes, if you just get it in against UTG and everyone else folds, means you're getting 1.5:1 odds and only need 40% cEV to break even. You're in the money, so ICM has some effect, but you are also really far away from any significant pay jumps and if you want to give yourself a shot to win, you have to take some chances.
So I think it's probably a shove. Would I actually do it in game? I don't know.
