[LOW] KK with two aces on the board
This hand might be a somewhat interesting example of whether we should play like we're in solverland in some spots, or like we think a random opponent at low stakes is expected to behave.
This is a 7,50 EUR PKO, quite early on in the tournament. For some reason we're 5-handed (it was 8 man)
iPoker - 1000/2000 NL (7 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 100.26 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 43)
Hero (SB): 83.46 BB
BB: 98.42 BB (VPIP: 34.88, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG: 118.24 BB (VPIP: 47.37, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 19)
CO: 237.17 BB (VPIP: 37.21, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 43)
5 players post ante of 0.15 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has K♥ K♠
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, BTN calls 6 BB
Flop: (17.75 BB, 2 players) 9♦ 3♥ 4♥
Hero bets 5 BB, BTN calls 5 BB
Turn: (27.75 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero bets 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB
River: (49.75 BB, 2 players) A♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 14 BB, Hero: ???
Pre/OTF is standard and approved by GTO Wizard
OTT GTOW strongly dislikes my about 40% bet. It prefers a block bet of 10% or a check. My reason for betting like this was I thought villain often will have either a heart draw or a TT-QQ, and all those hands are quite likely to pay a bet about this size. But in hindsight GTOW:s line might be better, if we think villain will float a lot of Ax-hands with this stack depths.
OTR of course the second ace makes it less likely villain will have Ax. But if they're a thinking player also less likely I'll have it. In the heat of the moment I decided checking was best, but GTOW wants me to almost always bet quarter pot. Is it to extract value from like TT-QQ? Or even T9s or 88 because in GTO I will have some hands like KJs that will do a 3-barrel bluff?
Do you think a check or a bet OTR is best in lowstakes?
As played: What to do when villain bets 21% after my check? I understand (at least so I believe) why GTOW wants me to call it? But again: Even though we get very good pot odds: How often will we have the best hand here against a random at lowstakes?
8 Replies
My reason for betting like this was I thought villain often will have either a heart draw or a TT-QQ, and all those hands are quite likely to pay a bet about this size. But in hindsight GTOW:s line might be better, if we think villain will float a lot of Ax-hands with this stack depths.
The problem with your thinking here is that most heart draws that continue are Ax heart draws, especially because you have the Kh.
I would size up the flop this deep. You are going to get floated a lot by ace high for that size, but I'd size up not so much to charge potential 3-outers but because I'm looking to try to get stacks in on safe runouts. Plus, you'd rather button's continues be those hands you crush, the pocket pairs, than the Ax hands with more outs.
As played, river price is too good to fold.
Pre is fine. I agree with Nath that you should size up the flop larger against humans, as there's a lot of bad cards that can come. You should be looking to get max value from lower pairs even if Ace high gets away (which it might not). I think you have to check the turn because the villain is quite likely to have either an Ace or a lower pair, and a lower pair is likely to get away while you're behind an ace. Just check, and re-evaluate.
Agreed that we can't fold river to this tiny bet.
You should check the turn - great card for him to bluff, and he has very few hands that will call anyways. Put down your GTO program and play exploitatively - you'll make more money.
Thx guys, your views seem reasonable.
At the table I made a weak fold, so we will never know what villain had.
Id always snapcall here 😃
seen to many times opps showing up with random air on these limits.
there, youd expect frequent value bets by weaker holdings than KK. they can have the occasional TT, JJ, slowplayed QQ. Theyd oftenly (relative to the great pot odds that you get) bet a 9 into you, even after that action. many missed draws (hearts, lowcarded straight draws) that theyve been sticky with IP especially after your smallish bets. would they bluff for that sizing? oftenly not, but it can happen. so I always call.
how would I play the hand?
flop I cbet, turn I likely check-call, and river I decide. going into bluffcatching mode on the turn feels right for me. if they check and another Ace drops off on the river (that would have been scary for them on the turn, so you may get many pairs to fold if you cbet turn, it's a card you could use for bluffing, but if you want thin value from a 9 or something, you're rather going to get it on the river), you can valuebet KK on the river into their pairs and stuff.
so if you wouldve called on the river, I feel like most of the time you'd get to see an ace (or better), but oftenly enough you'd win.
if you've reason to assume opp is reggish I would fold though, don't see how he would bluff for that sizing and valuebet weaker holdings than KK. sometimes you see brazil players bluffing for small sizings, once I got shown an underpair bluff that me fold my top paired ace just because I thought he's not bluffing for that sizing. before that I didnt feel like thats a thing (I dont think it's likely in your spot though)
Bigger pre. Bigger flop bet. Agree w ott block. Call river.
