AQo cracked

I don't think you can fold. He can be value betting worse.

Not sure if you can flat call preflop. Maybe fold if you think you are behind opener's range. Once you call and go to the flop with an SPR on about 1.3, you can't fold top pair.

You meant he can fold his top pp? He jammed into a 933r flop, the A was a rabbit

I’d 3b/call and get into a possible flip as an underdog here, I was only afraid of being pot commited if SB shoved after my 3bet pre. His open sizing told “don’t call me” so I wanted to outplay him by calling him (taking sb future move into account).

I think you've just got to get it in preflop with a hand this strong. Yes there's a chance the SB could wake up with aces, but it's not very likely and ultimately it's only 20 BB. Sometimes exposing a portion of your stack is just the right play.

It's kind of a disaster to call 3 BB out of 13 BB effective and then fold on a flop that's unlikely to have hit anyone. I think you're also overly confident about how strong they are here. Sure the hands you mentioned are in their range. They could also potentially be semibluffing with something like AJ that you're way ahead of.

It's a tough spot on the flop with ICM considerations, but ultimately you put yourself there by not raising pre.

he's 3xing when your stacks are as above.

Id range him as oftenly having midpairs 66 77 88 TT (JJ)

and weaker stuff than your hand like AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ

while occasionally he's also gonna have QQ AK KK AA 99 for whatever reason.

with midpairs he's protecting if he thinks of bad postflop playability (and thinks theyre to weak to shove outright with his stack).

with his broadway hands he wants to scare you off 3betshoving as he sees every single player behind him having a reshoving stack < 25 BB. He may not want to raisefold (or openshove) these hands with his stack.

for three bigs pre the price to go postflop is worse for you, so 3betshoving is better. youre shoving for max 20bigs effectively. going postflop to hit isnt optimal, youll miss in 2/3 cases.

he expects you to oftenly miss this flop so he can be bluffshoving a lot here. youve two overs to most of his pairs, thus the odds you get arent that far off even against that part of his range. altogether it's a call.

Just horribly played.

Wouldn’t post it if it wasn’t, I’m learning. Aside from missing 3bet pre, as played is a call I understand

Preflop could be a fold or a 3!. If you think you are behind his range, then fold.

AJ would not be semibluffing, but value betting on this board. He should have the better aces, so he could be pure bluffing with KQ or something on this board.

It's not a very effective value bet if the hand literally one pip above it is folding.

Call it what you want to call it, it's pretty much a game of who can put the money in first. That's why it's so bad to not 3-bet pre. With ICM considerations there will be a ton of spots like this where the aggressor can just put you into a spot where it's difficult to call with anything besides the top of your range.

On this flop I would expect he's probably shoving his entire range. If OP is folding AQ it should be profitable to shove the flop with any two cards.

Qtang, you said you would have called with AK but ask yourself honestly if you would have flatted that? I doubt it. Most players are jamming AK every time. You're likely raising pre with medium pocket pairs too. Maybe you might slow play aces occasionally or something, but otherwise what are you really calling this flop with?

With AK I’d def 3bet pre, this flop Id call with TT+, A9-T9 and I really wanted to call here with AQo too but since I put him in my mind on a pp here because of 3x pre and there were no aces or queens among 3/5 board cards I briefly calculated that 24% to hit an A or Q ott or otr combined are less than 36% I needed due to pot odds. I presented my whole way of thinking here, to get corrected if wrong. Some replies were passive aggressive and I don’t mind unless I get my bias fixed along with being mocked. I also noticed that one of the regs whose advice I value a lot must be going through some personal stuff now cause he’s mad af recently 😁

At $1 when ppl 3x with 13bb it’s 95% a mid/high pp, the remaining 5% is K5o and A2o

I agree with GreatWhiteFish that your real decision is preflop. Raise / get it in or fold.

Flat calling preflop is a much smaller mistake than folding when you hit the ace.

If villain has mostly pps, than AQ is good a high percentage of the time on an ace high flop.

Obviously AJ would value bet and its a good value bet, even if someone somehow folded AQ.

There was no Ace on the flop. The two last cards never came, Ive tried to explain it earlier but you’re angry at me cause you think I folded on A high board and don’t read my replies. It’s GG, they show “future” cards in HH

for 20 bigs you can always 3betshove AQoff, completely standard play.

you can look up free preflop ranges for mtts for different stack sizes in chipEV on gtoWizard, and surf through plays regards raises, 3bets, shoves and so on in different scenarios in different positions.

he opens to 3 bigs, that gives you even less room for 3betnonallin. his stack is so short too.

every once in a blue moon he will fold to your 3betshove. you never know what these guys will do. they dont even know themselves. one moment they think they will play one way, next moment they decide differently.

he will also show up with non pockets, though pockets may make a large chunk of his 3xing range. he's not wanting you shorties to 3betshove broadway stuff on him (or call him, as you mentioned already).