final table bubble (2): KJs short from CO

You “wait” at FT. Here you exploit ppl that are afraid like you were and jam in their faces like a crazy person. Then, when you get to the ft you wait, not now

This is the time and place to exploit, if you miss it you’ll get to the ft as a shortie

This is an open jam spot, both because it's the kind of hand for that vs. raise/folding, but also because you can't really be raise/folding vs. that stack in the BB. This has strong blockers and because it's a suited broadway you're rarely in terrible shape when you're called. Make them call off to flip, not you.

as nath said, make someone else worry about folding. That’s the ICM pressure. Who puts it first on others, wins. I’d jam here with JTo/T9o, 22+, 76s. You know what KJ is here? A boner trigger. Listen I’ve played 15 years ago, 3k sngs 180 ppl. The game was diffrent then, nobody min opened, no 3bets, just jam or fold. I suck at calling and post flop but I know a lot about jamming

Im sure it all depends. Let's say shoving is ICM baseline strategy here.

How do our opponents react to a raise vs a shove?

Isnt there a way to think of our opps being bad enough that a raise becomes more profitable?

I dunno, but I found that chatgpt knows a lot or talks like it knows a lot, so now I have a deep conversation with chatgpt 😃

Not debatable here. It’s the only moment in tournament when you can overshove and exploit it. The only real bubble. Who cares about mini cash ITM bubble at this level? This one is the one. real ICM starts when payjumps are 100-200% place vs place and then you can “consider” not open jamming kj with 10bb when some short stack is about to call atc from bb. Maybe play single table sngs on some other poker site for one day. You’re a clever player but this one you have completely the other way around

Can you think of one? I can't. The only benefit of raising is if you get a defense from a hand you dominate and end up getting it in. But the likelihood of that is pretty slim, and the value of taking down the pot without any risk of showdown is significant this late in the tournament.

ChatGPT doesn't know anything, but it sure does know how to predict words to sound like it does. And it's probably

https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/mit-study-finds-artificial-intelligence-use-reprograms-the-brain-leading-to-cognitive-decline/

Science, Public Health Policy and the Law

MIT Study Finds Artificial Intelligence Use Reprograms the Brain, Leading to Cognitive Decline - Science, Public Health Policy and the Law

I don't know how they're supposed to react vs my shove,

But some (unrealistic) assumptions somewhere along

1) they assume to have no fold equity reshoving since I raise off such a short stack

2) they reshove exactly the hands they would call my shove with (very strong hands)

3) they fold most of their range, and call only few hands of which many will be dominated, like KT QJ JT (oftenly BB vs me)

4) postflop theyll give up if they miss, and stack off if we hit a K or J together

Could give us the desired result of a raise (raisefold) being more profitable.

And maybe

5) SB who covers me ICM punting and calling my shove wider than he should

Dunno what calling range he should have, but there's fear that he'll find some weak calls that he shouldn't as it's a 5$ tourney after all

Or in general,

Fear that any of these guys will find a call that he shouldn't.

Will field on average rather overfold or overcall? I think overfold. These guys who have been left were rather on the tight side too.

But I'm not so sure, since they'll have to call my shove with a tight range anyway. Will they call even tighter than in ICM?

IF they call, you still have and King and a Jack, which is pretty nice plus they are both red and have ❤️ and that’s good too. If they call. If

If you think they'll overfold, that's all the more reason to shove. (ICM calling ranges should be pretty tight already; I don't know if they'll call tighter than that.)

And, as Qtang says, KJs is still a good hand even when you're called. You do win sometimes when you have to get it in.

oh wow, I just saw that gtowiz unlocked a lot of final table ICM solves

ahh forgot the last point,

666) making it to the final table Id be more deepstacked after blind rollback and able to take much better exploitative situations vs my villains.

that can be relevant of a future game consideration too, maybe here less as we're so short and a few extra blinds wont hurt us.

(and now I realized Im fantasizing about hitting the gas again, got to remind myself to contemplate it later)

okay here it's closer than it seems. the "unrealistic" assumptions I disclosed earlier have certain legitimacy.

that's my baseline strategy:

suited broadways like KJs like shoving here to avoid raisefolding (or inviting reshoves with good equity when we'd prefer to pick up the pot on the spot).

BB's calling range looks like

It's pretty tight already, and I think oftenly he'll be even tighter: folding some smaller pockets, AT, A9s, KQs, ... but sometimes he'll end up calling more loose.

this will be SB's tight calling range who has 15 bigs:

maybe he folds 88, 99, ATs, AJ, but he may also call more loose.

As we can see in our strategy, some Ax hands and offsuit broadways like KJ or QJ like minraising already (they will be raisefolds). The covering player is supposed to react like that:

in our 5$ tourney he may not reshove some pockets, broadways, or (suited) Ax, and he'll send premiums like AA KK QQ JJ into a shove instead of a small 3bet.

so we'll benefit of better equity realization when minraising.

then BB's reaction:

so it looks like some hands he sends into a shove he may just fold or call, like suited wheel aces, small pockets or suited broadways that we dominate which is also a plus for us, and he may be defending somewhat tighter generally.

so I conclude that minraising KJs can have similar or better EV than shoving under the right assumptions that can prevail in the right tournaments and circumstances.

against our minraise SB has nonallin bluff3bets like KToff, KJoff, A9off and other Ax, and some suited Kx / Ax.

theyre also balancing his stronger premiums which go into a small 3bet.

our opp may not have these bluff3bets at all, then we can realize our equity much better with a minraise.

If he does have too many bluff3bets though (for exampe Ax), we'd prefer to shove KJs.

BB can also be more aggressive, if he chooses to bluff3bet Ax hands or shove more suited Ax.

our minraising range is thankfully protected by premiums, so it's not as easy to pounce on us.

we should defend this range vs a big blind shove:

I think I know where the problem is. Non-Germans do not abide by the rules, generally speaking too, but here I mean GTO calling/reshoving ranges. Always be first to intimidate on ft bubble.

Really? I conclude that raise/folding lets the blinds play more hands than they would otherwise, especially the BB, and lets them resteal the pot from you with hands that would fold if you jammed.

If a raise, it’s a r/c., given KJs and pot odds. But it’s a fist pump shove

@nath

the question is what they'll actually gonna do.

Im contemplating these scenarios and some things Im somewhat guessing and unsure about, if it was a higher buy in tournament or my opps were better there'd be more reasons against a minraise ofc ;-)

so BB gets to play more hands than he would otherwise.

At what point does that become a problem?

arent we doing fine postflop with our small cbets if he's passive and doesnt show much resistance?

BB gets to reshove many hands vs our raise in this solve:

when compared to his calls/folds vs our shove:

he has 7 bigs though and we raised of a short stack .. potentially expecting hardly any fold equity in this 5$ tourney, is he gonna reshove anything that doesnt lie in the top5% of his hands?

In my strat in above solve KJoff is a raise, KJs isn't that far off from KJoff in raw hand strength, so it's not like raising KJs is going to be very bad when raising KJoff is good, I think. (KJoff is a raisefold in that solve vs BB reshoves)

@nath

The other two players can reshove too ofc. the convering player's reaction to our raise (we can simplify his 3bets to shoves in our scenario, though he ends up 3betfolding some of them in that solve):

how many Ax, suited Ax, pockets, broadways, suited connectors is he gonna reshove in reality?

tough to estimate, I think some opponents in this 5$ tourney will reshove less, and some will reshove much more.

Any Ax, if they think it's worth to pressure us in that spot? Maybe if they think we're doing exactly what we're doing, sending too many hands into a minraise that we'll not be able to defend vs a shove in ICM.

then, dependent on our assessment of villains, shoving KJs looks much better again. but if we don't know what our opps are doing ..

... we got estimate what they will be doing on a more general level.

I think I confused here something, namely them being tight / not wild in certain situations (well, mainly not calling off) with how they are going to play on a broader scale in this ICMish situation (not being wild when given the option to pressure).

that's a pretty basic fail assessment but I havent much experience in these deep runs, and without it's tough to estimate how random opponents of the field are really gonna play.

so we can save for ourselves:

In ICM, it's better to not give anyone the opportunity to be the last to put pressure on you with a move (where you have to call off then),

because people dont like taking risks in ICM (when they have to call off),
but like to put pressure on someone with a move when they still have the opportunity (to make villain call off).

@nath

so would you maybe even play it the other way around,

not sending KJs into a raise,

but rather KJoff into a shove too?