final table bubble (3): shoving range vs shorty?
Im in the SB with 10bigs, avg is like 13 bigs, other table has three players with 4-9 bigs and we're 11 / 2000 players left.
How wide should I shove vs recreg here who has 6.41 bigs in the big blind? 100%?
question 1) in normal ICMish situation
question 2) for GG with blind rollback
I limp here to get a feeling for if he's bad and will allow me to limp then mincbet my trash.
22 Replies
1) all except of Uber trash 2) all except of trash
“ I limp here to get a feeling for if he's bad and will allow me to limp then mincbet my trash.” he’ll shove here 101%. You know why? Cause this is the time to justify it. The exact moment to exploit
How you like my shitplays Qtang ? 😃
Deserved 10nd place I think 😃 😃
@Qtang
something along those lines:
32off must be uber trash xD
and look at BB's reaction:
I think he would fold much more in reality, thus we want to shove 100%
Just how often he folds if you're both playing perfectly suggests why this is a shove. And if you think he's calling even tighter, then yeah, shove everything but your traps.
I think he might call tighter because of the blind rollback, which is more incentive to shove.
It's easy to remember the times we shoved here and it didn't work out for us, but like 3/4 of the time we just pick up 2BBs and give ourselves more insulation.
Minraising is better than limping because it at least gives BB a chance to fold-- and BB might fold more than usual given that you are getting pretty good odds to call (which is why there are so few minraise/folds here to balance out the traps). Maybe also given that they get the blind rollback if they survive to the FT, although with 11 left (is the FT 8 or 9?) it might be too early to be planning for that specifically off that size stack.
One thing that these sims do not take into consideration - it would be better if BB had 10bbs. You can’t follow the sims here and jam 56o into a short Stack that will call you wide due to his circumstances. Human factor is what sims omit, especially around ICM psychological effects. You can jam 32o tho if you’d be similar stack to his 5bb (cause you don’t have much choice then this short at short table)
10bb is a lot, don’t listen to ppl telling you “but you’re only jamming 6 bb effective here” cause when you jizz ATC here and he calls you an you lose, you will be 4 bb and likely dead in next 2-3 hands. Chips you already have ate much more important than 2bb you earn here by jamming. you have to have something, anything. 94s, T6o, whatever. If you were 5bb like he is, you can jam all cause if you don’t and in next hands there will be jams prior to you acting, you’re dead
nah he will call tighter than in above chart it's 10 / 2000 and plenty of others are short too
that's completely false,
here's similar spot when I have only 4 bigs in small blind: -> shoving less
no one will be dead [dead by panicking before being dead?] as long as he has >0 bigs, it's not 2004.
against these plyrs in ICM you have fold equity with 3.5 big blinds.
Yes he’ll call tighter but you have to have something against his k9o and J2o is not “something”. As per the second one, you’re playing against people, not GTO bots. It’s worth remembering
Yes he’ll call tighter but you have to have something against his k9o and J2o is not “something”. As per the second one, you’re playing against people, not GTO bots. It’s worth remembering
Last sim has no entangled FE programmed if he says to shove less against a small stack
you're obv not aware of how close hand vs hand and range vs range equities run.
yes, thankfully it's exploitable people, if correctly assessed.
An analogy - you have $1000 in your wallet and the rent is due today, you’ll be kicked out if not paying. The rent is $1500. The other situation is you having $400 and rent being 1500 also. In which case you’d consider sucking cock for money? That what shoving 4bb into 5bb sb vs bb is. You don’t have to do it with 10bb and J2o tho with and avg stack of 15
You shove 32o from sb with 4bb into a 5bb. He’ll call you 20-30% of time, in other words you win blinds 70-80% of time. If he calls you, you still have like 30% or more chances to win as an underdog to let’s say KTo. You are more than 100% insured to jam here
You shove 32o from sb with 4bb into a 5bb. He’ll call you 20-30% of time, in other words you win blinds 70-80% of time. If he calls you, you still have like 30% or more chances to win as an underdog to let’s say KTo. You are more than 100% insured to jam here
It’s poker it’s stupid you have to win to win
@nath
ft is 9. when minraising BB has many calls
I think shove is best here in our situation.
Im wondering though how one would play this spot with J2off against topreg in a much higher buyin.
solve is balancing traps with hands like J2, but we don't really have the need to balance here assuming we rarely meat our topreg opponent and he'll thus be unlikely to find out if we indeed have minraise / folds in our minraising range.
so do we just minraise our premiums?
then our topreg opponent may have thought that we thought exactly what I just laid out and thus he'll assume we just have premiums in our minraise.
then we can actually raise not only J2off, but many more hands as a bluff.
our topreg opponent being topreg will of course still know what we thought, thus he'll exploit our strategy with many weaker hands than he should.
seems like most topregs will end up thinking that it's most simple and optimal to stay balanced in this spot and let others make a mistake if theyre deviating?
is that how most topregs of the field will reason, and thus simply end up playing balanced here, raising some J2off and some premiums vs other topregs?
