Interpreting All In EV Graph Question - Normal Variance?

any help?

I dunno that there's much to say, sorry. You're definitely running bad there but I think it's within the realm of realistically so.

How many hands is this over?

If it makes you feel any better, my graph is like the total inverse of yours and I'm running way above expectation.

Just kidding, I play almost exclusively live these days, and I'm not trying to kick you while you're down. I've actually been running bad recently too even though I've had a decent year overall. Sometimes in poker it's better to laugh at the variance than cry.

I'm not sure if there are many people actively posting on this site who are qualified to break your graph down in a more technical way. You would need someone like a high volume coach who has looked at a lot of players' data to give you some perspective.

I don't know what the standard deviation is over that type of sample. That information could be out there somewhere on the net? If I had to guess I would guess you are likely close to a full standard deviation below expectation. If you were beyond a full standard deviation then that would mean you're running in the bottom 5% of players. Again I'm just guessing and don't know where you actually are on that distribution.

If you could determine the standard deviation then you could calculate where you fall on the distribution. If you found out you were running in like the bottom .1% or something then I think it would be fair to start wondering if you were being cheated somehow. Based on what you posted it looks like you're likely just running bad though.

Looks like it's more than 1000 tournaments so it's got to be a fair amount of hands. He might be able to tell you the exact number though.

Edit: just re-read the OP and he said it's about 300k hands. So not exactly a tiny sample.

Thanks for the responses guys.

Yes this a decently large sample spanning over the last 2 years. Honestly I think even prior to this stretch (lost those hand histories) I was running just as bad.

It's gotten to the point where the site feels rigged. I hate sounding like a conspiracy theorist as I know anytime anyone claims foul play they are labeled as a crank but I just can't wrap my head around the run outs and things I see on this site. Perhaps it's just that I don't understand how much variance can impact things but it really feels like I lose almost every all-in. And that's not even accounting for the set-ups where I have the second best hand KK vs AA and obv lose vs the only other covering stack deep in a tournament.

It really doesn't matter how often or how much I get it in ahead by, I usually will lose. I think I'm at the point where I may just cut ACR out of my schedule.

I'm up on every other site I play on, and of course I understand that part of that is that the opponents are tougher/better on ACR than many other platforms but the all-in EV doesn't lie.

Would be happy to share my data with someone who is better suited to analyze this from a statistical standpoint that are beyond my abilities.