Risk Premium Question
Hoping to get help with a question I've been unable to find an answer to. I'm uncertain what the Risk Premium from the Bubble Factor formula means.
If the Bubble Factor is 1.5, I see "You need 60% raw equity to call." But I also hear, you need 10% more equity than cEV play.
So, if somone pushes on me and we're 10 bb deep with some antes, let's say I need 45% equity to call without considering payout implications.
However, I see a Bubble Factor of 1.5 for my situation. Do I need 60% to call? Or do I need 45 + 10 = 55 equity to call?
Could make that simpler with...is a Bubble Factor of 1 cEV play?
A bubble factor of 1 gives 50%. So, in that case, do I need 50% equity to call, or do I need just the 45% equity according to the pot odds?
4 Replies
Risk premium is the more relevant stat when you're playing at the tables. That's how much additional equity you need to make a call vs chip EV.
Personally I just ignore the bubble factor and think in terms of risk premium. Risk premium is derived from bubble factor. However as long as you understand that, the risk premium number is more practical to use at the table. That's because with practice you can learn to estimate it.
Risk premium is just: Bubble factor/ Bubble factor +1
It's also a dynamic stat. You have a different risk premium against different players at the table. You will generally have a larger risk premium against big stacks. This makes intuitive sense, since if they cover you they can knock you out whereas a short stack might only be able to win 20% of your chips. There is a higher risk colliding with big stacks, and especially ones that cover you.
Here's an article that explains both concepts well:
From the article:
"Bubble Factor measures ICM pressure in poker. ItÂ’s defined as the ratio between how much tournament equity ($EV) youÂ’d lose getting stacked, divided by how much $EV youÂ’d gain stacking another player in the tournament. In practical terms, Bubble Factor shows you who to be fearful of in a tournament and who to target with aggression."
Thanks for the reply. I did read that article this morning, and it's a great article.
I think I've answered my questions. It must be only added equity to our cEV. We'd never have a bubble factor less than 1, therefore the lowest risk premium will ever give with the formula is 50%. Clearly we don't always need a minimum of 50% to call. So, it's just an added equity of 0 with a bubble factor of 1.
What was confusing me is the language I'm seeing in ICMIZER (and other spots). They give a bubble factor of 1.5 and then say "Hero needs 60% raw equity to call.": they give that regardless the pot odds That is inaccurate. Hero needs 10% more equity than the pot odds indicate.
A bubble factor of 1 is chip EV, but you can't just add the bubble factor to your equity. You need to convert to risk premium first.
Chip EV bubble factor= 1
Risk premium= Bubble factor/ bubble factor +1
Chip EV risk premium= 1/1+1= .5
Stated differently there is no additional risk premium, you just need enough equity in chip EV.
In your example: Bubble factor of 1.5.
Risk premium= 1.5/1.5+1=.6
So yes you would need 10% additional equity.
That's why I said in practice I just ignore bubble factor, let the solver make the calculations and focus on how much additional equity you need (risk premium).
Actually I often skip that step too and focus more on estimating what the adjusted ranges should be. That's really what we need in game. This is all difficult to do in game, but as you look at more spots you develop an intuition for it. Even the best players in the world aren't going to be playing perfectly in these spots. It's just beyond human capabilities to calculate these things exactly in real time.
Thanks. I agree with everything you have here. Certainly the percentages are what matter and estimating the only practical implementation.
