GTO Push Chart Yields -EV
I'm a cash game player feeling my way through the concepts in MTTs. This one is blowing my mind, and I'm posting here to ensure I'm understanding this correctly.
Setup
Stacks
CO: 500
BTN 500
SB 1500 BubbleFactor vs BB: 1.6
BB 1000 BubbleFactor vs SB: 2.7
Prizes: 50, 30, 20
Blinds 50/100 no antes
Folds to SB
Solver:
SB shoves 100%
BB calls: 88+
SB EV 1.24%
BB EV 0.1%
BB Changes
If BB calls 100% of hands and SB stays 100%
SB EV -1.94%
BB EV -7.24%
SB’s Best vs BB100%
SB push top 18%
SB EV 0.24%
BB EV -13.2%
SB tries to be a step ahead and adjusts to 18%:
His equity is similar regardless of which of the two strategies BB picks (100% or 88+)
SB EV around 0.2%
BB EV -13 (all hands) and -0.05 (88+)
Conclusion
1. For SB, folding everything is a better strategy than the GTO strat of pushing everything.
2. Once BB calls with >25% of hands, SB EV drops lower than if I change to push 18%. It seems if BB is very loose, I need to abandon the SB GTO push spot to protect myself and the BB from the BB’s mistake. This is a mind-blowing concept for me, and as far as I can see, this is from equity leakage. I don't really think the term "ICM pressure" is accurate here. I don't think this bubble factor or risk premium here is the issue. It's just leaking tons of money to the other players.
So, if SB is very loose, I'm best served to simply choose 18%.
Do I have this right?
I ran across this article last week. Inside the article is this quote: "You should lean towards lower-variance exploits in spots with lots of ICM pressure."
Is this scenario an application of that?
2 Replies
In MTTs your opponent's ICM mistakes can cost you both EV (AKA ICM kamikaze). The EV you lose is gained by the other players not in the hand, who get a free chance to ladder with no risk to themselves.
If you got 3 guys fighting each other in a knife fight, but 2 of them decide to focus on stabbing the shit out of each other which ignoring the 3rd dude--the 3rd dude benefits pretty greatly there by "folding" his action (i.e. smoking a joint, jacking off etc basically anything but fighting) and letting the other 2 dudes literally bleed EV to him
Same principle here really.