tournament bubble icm
im 15th out of 17th people left 15 people get paid in a tournament with 100 runners the two shorter stacks where on the other table should i of jammed here
PokerStars - 500/1000 Ante 125 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
UTG: 11.38 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 19.71 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (MP): 9.32 BB
MP+1: 23.2 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+2: 28.49 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
CO: 11.99 BB
BTN: 30.1 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
SB: 14.87 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BB: 18.43 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 46)
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 9.1 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 9.1 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop : (21.82 BB, 2 players) Jd 3c Kh
Hero checks, BTN bets 2 BB, Hero calls 0.1 BB and is all-in
Turn : (22.02 BB, 2 players) 4s
River : (22.02 BB, 2 players) 5d
Hero shows Ad Td (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 31%, Flop 18%, Turn 7%)
BTN shows Ah Qs (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 69%, Flop 82%, Turn 93%)
BTN wins 22.02 BB
2 Replies
It's basically fine, with a couple of possible exceptions:
1)If the two shorter stacks are really short, you may want to wait them out to ensure a cash.
2)A table playing this poorly-- limp/folding on the bubble sub-20BB-- might make their own mistakes to bust themselves before you have to get it in.
But that said, I don't see how this isn't a profitable shove, even from EP, just some bad luck. Only a question if the table play or stack sizes elsewhere could make waiting for a cash more profitable.
Yeah I agree that the shove seems fine. Nath's considerations are good things to think about.
Also watch out for limps that are monster hands trapping. Like in your scenario if a rec was limp/folding and/or limp/calling with marginal hands all day I would definitely jam in your spot. However if you see someone who you've been playing with for hours who has never limped, then suddenly they limp UTG that should be setting off alarm bells. In that scenario I probably wouldn't jam. I say probably because you have limited info so it's always a judgement call.
