Did I just punt my 26bb stack?
Playing Live MTT $400 Buy In, 20% field left with 12.5% paid.
Playing 6 handed and I have 24bb eff on BB with 1bb ante, (I have a tight/solid image). Button is chip lead with 55bb and has been active, seems like a thinking player.
Bu open 2bb, I call with Qd7d
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Pot: 5.5bb
Flop: Jc 4h 9s
H- X
Bu- X
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Pot: 5.5bb
Turn 8h
H- X
bu bet 1.2bb
H - XR 3.66bb (I was thinking that given how active/aggro villain has been and since we are closeish to money he would be c betting at high frequency here, felt like his delay xcbet range would quite weak. Also felt like since we are close to bubble he would overfold vs my XR so I decided to XR with my hand. Felt like this turn completed a lot of draws and 2p for my range too)
Bu - Call
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Pot: 12.7bb
River: 5c
I jam for 17.5bb (Felt like this river was great for my overall range, 67 just got there so I thought having 7 here was relevant and I unblock hearts)
he tanks for 3 mins (This was last hand before break) and calls and shows 7h7c
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My main questions are: Should I have lead turn instead of XR and was this hand just a give up vs delay cbet or in river after call on turn? Can't help but feel like I punted my stack off.
BONUS: Thoughts on villain call vs XR and Jam?
Thanks in advance for your time and feedback!
7 Replies
After the flop checks through I will basically always lead the turn because it looks like Villain has missed. Especially on a hand just before a break. People often will fold to go to the bathroom.
If Villain then raises on the turn I would fold because it might be a set or QT that got there. My lead out sizing on the turn would likely have been 2.5 bb's and then if called I would lead out the river for maybe 6 or 7.5 bb's. Not sure if Villain would have folded but it would have looked like we have a J or better. And even if we are betting with 9x or 8x Villain is still behind. But because we c/r'd it is unlikely that we have these hands. We are now limited to monsters and semi bluffs.
My c/r sizing on the turn would have been 4.8 bb's (or maybe like 4.5 bb's) because we are OOP and if we are planning a river jam it will be more effective at roughly pot size rather than 1.5x pot. And Villain would likely have called that as they did your sizing.
I actually don't mind the river jam because after the c/r it looks like you could have a monster. The only issue is that the sizing is very polarizing. So Villain may think you had a heart draw that didn't get there. 76 is not really a hand that you would c/r with (unless it was specifically a flush draw too) and here unfortunately Villain blocks it a lot as well as T7. You can have QT/J9/J8. But you can also have Tx hands without an 8, 9, J, or Q and even both a straight and flush draw.
I dunno if this is a good spot or not-- blocking QT and 76 helps for sure. I feel more confident in this: I think a c/r turn line is not that plausible-- once villain checks flop, you don't want the turn to check through if you have a good hand. Might be better to just pot flop / shove river if you want to bluff this.
I could see myself taking a similar line as yours for value. When you check twice you're giving up a lot and villain will stab turn a fair amount, so it makes sense to mix in some check raises. It's one of those spots that's probably fine if you're doing it in a balanced way with some value hands and some bluffs.
The thing is ranges are really wide button vs BB and you don't have that many monster hands in your range (in relation to all the trash hands in your range that check twice). So when you consider that at least some of your strong hands probably bet instead of check raising, then it's pretty easy for you to be out of line over bluffing when you take this line. So I can see why he hero called.
I would rather take your line as a bluff vs the type of player that's just playing their own hand over trying it against a good thinking player.
I still think it's better to make a mistake being aggressive than it is to passively make a bad call down, so don't beat yourself up. We've all done stuff like this where afterwards we wondered why we bluffed it off.
I dunno if this is a good spot or not-- blocking QT and 76 helps for sure. I feel more confident in this: I think a c/r turn line is not that plausible-- once villain checks flop, you don't want the turn to check through if you have a good hand. Might be better to just pot flop / shove river if you want to bluff this.
Or near pot. Whatever's geometric; if I did the math right, when you pot the turn there's 16.5bb going to the river and you have like 15.7bb.
Thanks for the detailed reply. I get what you mean by sizing up the check raise, I just auto 3x without considering river SPR, altho in my head I would have wanted bigger river SPR to get more folds (altho I guess that means he calls more range on turn). Overall from your response and others and also from my opponents play seems like the XR line here wasn't really as efficient as a turn lead could have been.
I dunno if this is a good spot or not-- blocking QT and 76 helps for sure. I feel more confident in this: I think a c/r turn line is not that plausible-- once villain checks flop, you don't want the turn to check through if you have a good hand. Might be better to just pot flop / shove river if you want to bluff this.
Yeah totally makes sense I am thinking the same regarding turn lead! Cheers for the reply 😀
I could see myself taking a similar line as yours for value. When you check twice you're giving up a lot and villain will stab turn a fair amount, so it makes sense to mix in some check raises. It's one of those spots that's probably fine if you're doing it in a balanced way with some value hands and some bluffs. The thing is ranges are really wide button vs BB and you don't ha
Thanks for the kind words at the end. It's always tonight when you feel like you made a terrible play, but it's these plays that push us to be better. I agree with all your points as others have also stated. Thanks for the reply!