WPT 3k - ship 88 for 30 bigs?
In the money. Maybe 80 left out of 1500. 625k at 10k/20k/20k level (started with 40k). Guys to hero’s right and left both have well over 1M.
HJ opens 40k. Hero flats CO with 88 (anybody doing anything else?). BTN 165k. Folds to hero. SB had a stack of like 300k, so BTN clearly ok with at least that much going in. BB had like 700k I think.
Recently moved tables so I don’t know much, but both CO and BTN seem to be strong players.
Anybody shipping? Is call an option?
7 Replies
We can no longer go set mining. So I would fold.
Best case if you jam would be a flip. Because you called the original raise there is no way you would have QQ+ or AK so I doubt BTN would ever fold (because I also doubt BTN would 3 bet with a PP < 88).
Deep breath, sigh, disciplined fold. You still have five hands before your BB then 11 orbits.
Villain snapcalls a shove obviously.
Just fold and I think you played it perfectly.
I did fold. Sizing just felt like he was trying to disincentivize calls which made me think we can discount AA and maybe KK. And if he’s doing this with AQ and mixing in some hands down to like AJs occasionally, felt like we could be getting a decent price to most likely flip.
Just wanted to verify that nobody prefers to take the risk at this stage of the tournament to flip for a potential deepish stack. Thanks.
Another thought I had was maybe I can “put him on ace king” and call. Of course, I understand I’m against a range, but that range is significantly weaker when the flop is low.
Sizing isn't really that notable, and as you said, he has to call an SB shove so that might trim some of the bluffs out of his hand (but probably not all, especially if he's a good player).
I think 88 is just a little too weak and you lack blockers, so I probably fold. I probably go with it with TT, but I might 3-bet that the first time around. I think you can 3-bet 88 some of the time here, although I don't think it's strictly necessary and it is a more high-variance option. But with a medium pair vs. a preflop raiser you're doing a lot of guesswork, and even if the raiser flats your 3-bet, you can take control of the hand and win some pots on flops that aren't necessarily good for you.
Anyway, it kinda sucks when this call raise / fold to squeeze line happens with a hand that good, but I think it's the standard play.
Seems like a fold is likely correct due to ICM.
Chip EV if it was earlier in the tournament I would probably be continuing with either a call or jam.
Easy fold. Not getting many folds to push and behind his range. Can't flat 3!.
If it is getting raised a lot, you could flat hands in JJ+/AK and backshove.
