ATs, 14bb from UTG

Fold.

Raise 2x.

Snap fold and hope everyone else follows suit so you can get your big blind in before the level goes up.

In all seriousness it's probably a GTO open. I'm guessing with ICM the bottom of your opening range here would probably be somewhere around ATs or A9s (again just guessing so don't take my word for it).

Whether it's supposed to be a GTO open or a fold, it's going to be close to neutral $EV. If you're not confident that it's the right play I don't think there's anything wrong with folding in this sort of spot. I think a lot of the value of opening here just comes from you having a relatively tight UTG range and therefore having a good amount of fold equity. This combined with the Ace blocker gives you a decent chance of taking down the blinds uncontested.

However I find that human opponents will often continue vs. our open more often than they should in these sorts of spots, both by calling and by raising/jamming.

For this reason I prefer tightening up my opening range slightly at these short stack depths so that I can call an appropriate percentage of the time when people jam. The last thing you want to be doing is raise/folding too much from short stack depths to where you just bleed chips.

GTO open is going to be significantly wider with the suited aces than that, if it's ICM-adjusted. Suited aces block so much of the 3-betting or calling ranges and always give you the possibility of flopping top pair or a flush draw, and at this depth that's enough to get it in. Indeed, I would expect the ICM range here to be more biased toward suited aces overall than the cEV range, dropping other hands out of that.

How the table at these stakes plays is important. If people are flatting raises too much, or too many pots are going multiway, I will trim off the bottom of my range in early position, especially the ones likely to be dominated or that are difficult to play postflop. ATs is too strong even in that scenario, though.

So: r/c > fold > jam? I did the latter cause I wanted to avoid the scenario of missing the flop and having to fold. Bad?

If i got it right in the free GTO wiz (some settings options locked) it’s either r/c or r/f for cEV and ICM respectively

Yeah you're right. I don't know what I was thinking with my last post. Disregard that Qtang. I took the last month off from playing and need to freshen up on these ICM spots. I was thinking you would be tightening up more in early position, but that's really only true around the final table bubble.

Just checked a similar spot and the bottom of the ICM-adjusted opening range was around A5s with A4s also mixing in some opens. ATo was a borderline open.

I don't think you want to jam with 14 bb Qtang. The results you said you got in GTOwiz sound correct, with a raise/fold being correct due to ICM.

I would jam here. Blinds going up next hand basically though it is possible if we jam and everyone folds the blinds will stay the same for us.

We are in the money but payouts are not going up at a fast rate right now.

Here's another way to think about it: People generally play pretty tight at this stage, so you shouldn't run into too many 3b bluffs. Especially considering your stack and position. So if you're not going to get pushed out by a worse hand, what does jamming accomplish that the open doesn't? Opening is the safer play, keeps some worse hands in, and allows you to get out if action goes crazy behind you.

People with larger stacks will call in position with hands like KQ/KJ/QJ/etc. and I just hate playing OOP when I miss the flop like 67% of the time.

The other thing is (and this could be because I am an oldish white man) that a lot of times people with fold AJ and even AQ against me in these spots when I jam. But they won't when I min raise. Similarly with smallish PP's

Now I have lost in these spots to AK in the BB a couple of times and such is life. But the vast majority of time I take it down preflop.

That was exactly my thinking - first to avoid the scenario of having to fold post with 12 out of 14 bb, then - and I’m surprised to read that as I thought I’m the only one believing in such things - to fold out BETTER hands as this shove is pretty problematic for someone in MP or LP with AJs and AQo let’s say. I ofc got rejammed by BTN with 30bb and AK but again, that’s life. I’m 37 but tired already, does that count tho