satellite spot

Not sure why you feel you are either ahead or flipping with SB but if it is based on SB's prior play then I would go with your instinct and call.

I typically will fold TT here because its a satellite and I think in general at best we are flipping. SB has no reason to jam with PP's < TT because there are many times that UTG has a monster here. Also because there was a call and you will always call, SB would not want to play KK+ OOP against two other players in a biggish pot.

part of it is specific opponent history but mostly my own experience with this player type, in this multiway oop spot and their sizing.

i feel premiums are going for a smaller raise, basically anything less than jam and the only real threat is jj.

if you take out all hands we beat from his range so 99, 88 and only include hands we flip with aks, ako, aqs, aqo, is it correct to gamble here with 25bb? how would u go about evaluating that?

thanks again

This is tricky because there will be two pots we are playing for. If you are right and Villain has only AK/AQ type hands then most of the time we are 57% to win and when he is suited (about a quarter of the time) we are 52% to win. So on average we will win about 25 to 26 bb's in the side pot. The main pot is tricky because we stand to win 24 bb's maybe 40% of the time (if MP has AQ/AJ) and maybe like 15% of the time (if MP has JJ+). And this assumes that CO will bail. But CO may call too because they already called for 33% of their stack. Especially if CO has KK+ and wanted another raise. But CO could have a lot of PP's

If I was sure that Villain has AK or AQ I would most likely call their jam and hope that MP has the same hand and CO will fold. But even if CO calls with a PP < TT I would be fine with it anyway.

a thoughtful, thorough and eye-opening response, thank you very much for your time and effort.

I think I fold to the big stack and find a better spot, preferably against a player with 50-60% of my stack, not one covering me.

What was average stack with 16 left and how quick were the blinds?

thank you for your input,

forgive me, we were 16th place out of 40 left. we were slightly higher than avg stack. blinds were 5min

may i ask, do you make this decision based on my read or how you would approach the situation? i only ask to differentiate between a fresh take and one that assumes we are flipping with villain. If we know for sure we are flipping, i still think this is a scenario to think over, or am i crazy?

My approach is this:

With 16 left and 6 places paid and your slightly better than average stack, you have to double up to hit the money. With 27bbs, you have enough play left to not make a tournament life decision pre flop against a chip leader as to whether you are flipping or not. Plus, you are not pot committed nor have first in equity.

Even if you know you are flipping, you have 4/13 chance of an overcard on the flop.

I like to 1) have fold equity when all in preflop by being the bettor not caller, 2) prefer to be all in against shorter stacks and 3) prefer to have a little bit better hand at 27 bbs to gii pre. Thus, I would fold here, as my pre flop raise certainly did not pot commit me.

I donÂ’t think itÂ’s crazy to go with your read and call here but crazy **** happens when you have 5 cards to come, even when you are flipping pre. There is nothing wrong with taking the shot here because a win probably guarantees you a money spot.

I also have no idea why you think you read is absolutely correct in this on line tournament.

Even 16th with 40 left, 6 seats, I would play a little more cautiously with my stack in a satellite. BB is shoving with a player allin, so he can only isolate. Unless you have a read he is playing aggressively with the big stack, I would fold this.

I don't agree with the read that SB always raises smaller with a big pair. A min raise is basically pot committing, even against you. CO already put in 1/3 of their stack so it's going to be difficult for them to get away. It's also a satellite so it's typically correct to jam some stronger hands due to the ICM pressure compared to a normal tournament. If I was in the SB's shoes I would likely jam QQ and KK. AA might be the only hand that would potentially want to raise small, but I probably jam that too because it just looks too strong to min raise and is basically pot committing against the remaining players' stack sizes.

Anyway I likely fold here because EP raise, jam, call, jam is just extremely strong action and I don't think you're in great shape against the first AI caller's or second jammer's ranges.

The CO call of the first jam is pretty strong. If your read is correct that SB always raises smaller with big pairs to induce action, couldn't that same sort of logic also mean the CO might flat with a hand like AA to induce action?

If you took the CO call out of the equation then I would likely call, but that flat is strong in its own right and also significantly strengthens the range that SB will jam with.

i agree with everything you said. I have no arguments against any points you make but my point remains this opponent is not thinking on that level. I believe they want to retain equity even though they don't understand it - they want to see all the cards or ensure getting to showdown. I think the only real threat is JJ. His sizing is scared and as if to say 'get out'. A stronger player may jam with qq+ in BB's spot not to induce but to simply protect equity even if currently ahead of UTG opener.

You raise an excellent point about CO calling. I didn't want to bring too much attention to this bc CO has effectively zero poker iq and his range is so wide and whether he is encouraged by the action to get it in or apprehensive and folds is so up in the air i didn't know if it was worth mentioning. also his stack is almost identical to the short jam and so even tho i think the short jam has the strongest range out of everyone involved, i think the COs involvement is negated somewhat by this fact and also it doesn't affect the side pot with BB and myself. If anything it strengthens my argument of BB trying to clear the mess and look as strong as possible with his jam.

~

i should be clear, If i included qq+ in BB's range i wouldn't even post this hand. everyone disagrees with me on the read and i'm okay with that. but what if we assume we are looking at a face up range of aq+ and determine if it makes sense to gamble here?

thank you everyone,

I don't have a real answer to your question yet, but I doubt the 5.5bb stack jamming has the "strongest range" involved— he probably has to get it in with any reasonable equity. CO may be a doofus, but SB is still jamming after open/jam/cold call; that has to be the strongest range.

As far as your answer, if you think SB is never nutted, then sure, I guess you could call— you should be 57/43 against two overs and you're far enough from the payouts that it's probably OK. That's a lot of confidence in your read, though, and I'm not sure I could discount the top of range so quickly. There's just so much action and money in the pot already that SB rejamming their entire continuing range makes sense. Maybe if he has AA he makes it like 12BB, but you can't do that too often or it's to obvious.