Fold??? AK preflop

AKo or AKs?

Probably just fold with how little you've invested so far. The 4x open raise is quite curious.

Re jam for me.
I think I’d rather have AK than QQ in this spot because it makes it a little less likely that they have AA/KK.

If you're confident about your reads I guess it would be a fold, but honestly I'm skeptical about the reads. You said UTG is a standard reg, but he opened to 4x. That doesn't seem very standard to me.

With the large open size it also incentivizes the nitty player to squeeze with a relatively wide range. He's only got 20 bb effective.

I'm trying to think of a single example in real life where I would fold AK in this scenario, after flatting and then facing jams from 20 and 33 BB stacks, and I can't think of one. AK is just generally too good to fold at these short stack depths, even against tight players.

If this guy is really THAT tight though then I guess you should fold.

For what it's worth I folded. As I thought about it more though I realized that I did not consider UTG's chip stack as I was too focused on BB. My original statement that UTG had 33K is an estimate. I should have gotten a count. If he had closer to 40K, I am thinking that a side pot (assuming that I win it) keeps me where I started and gives me some shot at the entire pot, especially if nitty BB has QQ/JJ or even KK.

I've spent years of my life grinding these types of tournaments for profit (and fun). Admittedly my ABI is a little higher these days but still.

AK is just a premium hand considering how short the effective stacks are.

Putting aside drastic ICM considerations, I would go as far as to say if most players never folded AK with less than 40 BB they would probably be better off in the long run (here it's 20 BB and 33 BB effective). I'm not saying there's not a time and a place for making the big fold with AK. I'm even acknowledging this could be that correct time to make the big fold, assuming reads are accurate.

It's just the potential EV you gain by making the occasional big (and correct) fold can be more than offset if you're occasionally wrong and they're shoving AJ or something and you miss out on those great 70/30 spots.

I wasn't suggesting the tight player would be jamming KTs, but I could definitely see even a tight player show up with stuff like AQ or TT, and that's all it takes to make it a clear call. After all he's only 20 BB deep and given his image, he should have a fair amount of fold equity even if UTG is relatively strong.

Also remember the tight player is jamming himself, not calling a jam. That's typically going to be a wider range than if he was calling off a jam.

What did they end up having? I'm curious? I will guess AQ and JJ.

BB had QQ. UTG had AJ. Part of the reason this hand stuck with me was that I would’ve turned a K and scooped the pot. But, I still think folding was correct, assuming my estimate of UTG’s stack was accurate. In fact, as I thought about it more, I should’ve expected these hands. Since UTG called the allin he most likely has an A as he would probably fold KJ, QJ or K10. So, most likely, AJ or A10 since, if we assume BB has QQ or KK having accouted for two aces, UTG probably doesn’t have AK or AQ or KQ. UTG could also have a smaller pair.

Also, I agree with GreatWhiteFish that folding AK is almost never correct, especially at the stakes that I play. I think this might have been the second time I have done it (and I can't recall the first 😀 ). Quick funny story is that I was playing another tournament yesterday and 3 bet with AK. Player on the button folded and said he also had AK. While I was taking down the pre-flop money, I was also laughing in my head. "I know I'm tight, but I sure as hell would've called (or raised) me if I had AK."

Interesting. If you had seen the hands you would know you had the equity to call, but QQ is actually towards the bottom of the nit's perceived range. So yeah the fold may have still been correct against that player's range.

Yeah given the description of the nit I assume they're never unpaired here. And players like that will absolutely flat a 4x raise with AK and fold if they miss rather than jam.

I didn't run the math but with an ace gone your equity has to be decently lower here than a flip - which reminds me, I don't think I ever got an answer as to whether it was AKs or AKo.

AKo

AJ is just so crushed, that even with us having one less out we're better off having them in the pot. It's better to have 34% to triple up compared to having 44% to double (if we were just flipping with QQ). That's simplifying because obviously we have both players covered.

Anyway with the dead money in the pot we would want to call with these exact hands, but the times the nit shows up with KK or AA are going to push it into fold territory (assuming they really never show up with worse than JJ). Also the other player can occasionally show up with aces or something too.

Here's AK vs QQ and AJ:
[image]IIcQKkk.jpg[/im

..]

I was just looking at this exact calculation except for only considering AKo which is slightly worse. I came to the same conclusion. On these exact hands, shoving is better, but, knowing nit as well as I do, I still think this was a fold unless UTG had me close to covered. In which case, I think shoving would be better because, most likely, I am no worse off than I started assuming my AK has him dominated. I would still be worried though that I am going to see nit with AA and UTG show up with a pair.

AKs may be a call here. It's about 3.25% difference in equity over AKo, which is significant when it's this close.

Part of the confusion in us figuring this out, I think, stems from ranging UTG. You called them a standard regular, but opening 4x UTG and then calling a 20x squeeze shove from a nit with AJo isn't standard at all. if I knew UTG was that loose, then sure, I might call. From your description of them and from the open raise size I was basically expecting JJ+/AK.

That was kind of my point in my first post.

UTG was described as a regular, but no reg I know is opening to 4x UTG off of that stack size.

I pretty much concluded they were a fish. Still there's a big difference between whether they are a nit-fish opening JJ+, AK like you were assuming and a loose fish opening and calling off with all kinds of junk (like many I encounter in Florida, lol).

I agree. Truth is I don't know UTG as well. He seemed to be a reasonable player, but not a good one. Fish is probably too strong. Clearly, this was a terrible call on his part. While this is definitely a marginal situation, I think the big takeaway for me in thinking this through is that I focused too much on the BB and too little on UTG. Still might make the same decision in the same situation. In part this is because I think I am better than the other players, and I try to avoid marginal situations if I can. I can usually find better spots to get their money. 😀

I haven't played in a tournament under $100 in the US in a long time (like 10 or twelve years) so maybe things have changed since. But what I remember is that the players are not very good. I used to cash a lot of the time.

There are a few things that stand out about this hand. The first is the 4x open by UTG. When players do this it mostly is JJ (as Nath pointed out). However sometimes it is TT/QQ or AK. Unless the player does this frequently and they are doing it to take it down preflop. Given the outcome that UTG did it with AJ when they had 33 blinds, it means UTG is awful.

The other issue is the read that BB will jam in this spot with only JJ+. When this is the case it should be noted that they have AA and KK more than QQ, and QQ more than JJ.

So this is typically not a good spot with AK (though we do block AA and KK). Given this I think the fold was OK.

Personally I think AJ is not a terrible call (though I would have re-jammed) because AJ is typically at the bottom of my range for calling 3-bet all ins by players with <=20 bb's. But in theory since he opened UTG and BB jammed anyway its a potential fold. In this situation its an auto fold given what we know about BB, but UTG is not good and likely had no clue about BB's range.

Why I would jam with AKo in this situation is that we are about 42% to 43% against JJ and if BB has QQ we are 36% to win it all. And UTG isn't ever going to fold for another 13k especially because we just called his flop bet. I don't mind more than doubling up in a $90 tournament a couple of hours in. Especially getting well over 2:1 pot odds. I wouldn't call here because if an A or K hits the flop UTG would likely fold and we would miss out on the additional 13k. And if an A or K doesn't hit the flop we would still be 25% to win against JJ (unless a J hit the flop with is a 12% thing) so I wouldn't be folding to a 13k turn bet.

The other reason I jam here is that $90 tournaments are typically turbo like with 20 minute levels (or even 15 minute levels). So if we fold we have 36 blinds which is going to go down soon. And we may not see another decent hand for a while...

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One point about this hand; you have a great table seat. Being right next to a super nit is quite valuable. They won't defend their button, SB/BB as often as they should.

Don't take marginal spots when you have this advantage.

One point about this hand; you have a great table seat. Being right next to a super nit is quite valuable. They won't defend their button, SB/BB as often as they should.

Don't take marginal spots when you have this advantage.

you have removal to AA and KK. Poker is a game, yeah? Pop the raise given stack size. sometimes they have it and that's poker.

I don’t mind folding AK

But it’s almost always post-flop when things turn sour. Pre-flop, I’m probably getting it in and catching an ace on the river.

If there’s a 3bet and a 4bet ahead of me, I will fold, but that’s not exactly what happened here. It’s probably even stronger ranges facing a shove and a call. Probably wouldn’t be up for review if you hadn’t spiked the king.

I think fold is the play facing two all-ins. If another player has AK, then both of you watch the pair win. Sooner or later you have to play a flip in a tournament, but this is not the best time.

I don’t think it’s terrible, but I just can’t get behind the idea of calling to beat one of the two. I just glanced it but it looks like you still lose 7k more by beating one guy and not the other.

In a $90 tournament at this juncture it was absolutely a 3bet shove preflop with no regrets whatsoever .