What is this wrong with this play?
I can see from previous posts that people are not going to like this play, but I have been very successful with it. For context, I have a very TAG image at the table and play exclusively live $50-$150 ish tournaments and am a solidly winning player at this level. Also, as a 60 year old, I have no particular poker ambitions other than to maybe move up a little in stakes. Below, I will describe my playing style more fully (feel free to comment on it), but here is the play:
Middle to late stages of the tournament. I have 9-10 BB (maybe 7-12 with some adjustments to bet sizing). My opponent has me covered. I decide to open. Rather than going all-in which I think the preferred play for many, I raise to 3BB. Assuming that I am called by one (maybe even two) opponents and have position after the flop, it is my intention to go all-in if it is checked to me on the flop unless the flop hits my opponents range very squarely, or I hit a big hand, in which case I will check behind or raise smaller. If I get raised preflop, or if there is a donk bet on the flop, I make a decision, but these situations rarely happen.
I have found that this approach has some big advantages as people have to call me twice, not just once. Often, I steal the blinds. If not, because I have a very tight image, people often give me credit for a big pre-flop hand and will often fold after the flop given this second opportunity. Finally, when I do hit my hand, I often double up as a small flop bet gets my opponent pot committed. My experience with shoving a similar range it that I only get called by hands that have me crushed because of my tight image. I don't think the play would work if I had a more LAG style.
So, do you believe it is better to shove? If so, why?
More on my playing style and image (comments are also welcome here): Early in this level of tournament, I play a fairly straightforward TAG style. While there are exceptions based on table dynamics, I raise with AQ+ and 99+ and usually limp with lower pocket pairs or two face cards depending on my position at the table (if I play these at all) or lower pocket pairs. Rarely, I will play suited connectors or other hands in late position just for variety, but I usually don't. I rarely cold call or 3-bet without a premium hand (I might set mine with low pairs). I have two main goals at this point. First, I want to observe the table at levels that don't ultimately matter that much and, second, I want to blend in with all the other old white guys at the table which really helps later in tournaments. As the tournament proceeds, I open up my range and limp a lot less depending on my stack size and the table dynamics. This change tends to catch people off guard and even observant players are slow to adapt, often too late for them. It can be even more effective with regulars who play a lot of hands with me at low levels and never see this change in style because they only rarely are playing with me at later stages.
I appreciate any thoughts.
5 Replies
Well, in general: When you're short you want to maximize your fold equity, particularly in the middle and late stages, when staying alive has value. The bigger the bet people have to call, the worse their odds are, and the more likely they are to fold.
Raising so much of your stack like this doesn't maximize your fold equity and creates a situation where you may have to fold later in the hand after putting in 25-40% of your stack.
Often, I steal the blinds. If not, because I have a very tight image, people often give me credit for a big pre-flop hand and will often fold after the flop given this second opportunity. Finally, when I do hit my hand, I often double up as a small flop bet gets my opponent pot committed.
This sounds like you're describing the results in a biased way. Sure, it's a great strategy if they fold every time you don't have it because they give you credit for a big hand (in which case, why call preflop at all?), but they call every time you have it because they're pot committed.
Similarly, I'm sure you get some folds when you shove, or even win the hand if you get called. This seems like it may be selective memory.
I play a fairly straightforward TAG style. While there are exceptions based on table dynamics, I raise with AQ+ and 99+ and usually limp with lower pocket pairs or two face cards depending on my position at the table (if I play these at all) or lower pocket pairs. Rarely, I will play suited connectors or other hands in late position just for variety, but I usually don't.
Your preflop ranges are too tight and easy to exploit. (Being too tight is even worse if you're playing these live stakes and studying, because you're more likely to be one of the better players, and playing more han) If you raise, I'll call in position and just bring the pain on say 765r because I know you never have a straight, set, or two pair. You should study some proper preflop ranges and preflop bet sizes. You should also look into how they change with stack size and stage of the tournament. Also, there really is no reason to ever open limp (except some rare and specific ICM-influenced short stack situations where you can do it).
I think you'd at least find the results interesting. And while I'm sure in the tournaments you play, an exploitative style is going to be a bigger winner than playing pure GTO will, but it's good to have the theoretical foundation so you know what you're deviating from.
I am always grateful when there are players who limp first in at my table regardless the size of the tournaments. When I am a blind it means I can play awful hands that if they hit hard can win decent pots. I doubled up in a WSOP Senior event in the SB when a guy limped and I called and hit 2 pair on the flop with T7o and he hit top pair on a KT7 flop.
I always go all in with 12 blinds or less. Mostly I am all in with 15 blinds or less except in ICM situations (like at or near final tables or near the bubble).
My range with small stacks is much wider than yours. I will be jamming with 22+ and most AXs hands and most if not all broadways hands as well as many SC's. OK in Ep there are some of those hands I won't jam with but if I haven't raised in a while I often go with all of them.
I have played in tournaments where I have jammed like 10 or more times preflop and didn't get called. Especially because I am an old white man. When I do get called it is often with better hands and I do have to get lucky. Sometimes I do and it gets me into the money.
The problem with raising 3x preflop with small stacks is that it is obvious you have a very strong hand. Not that players in $50 to $150 are always going to realize that. Just that some will. Also betting over 30% effective stack is basically pot committing. When you do it with AK/AQ you are likely going to have to get it all in anyway. So rather than playing a pot OOP with AK/AQ you get to go all in where at worst typically its a flip. With PP's its a problem when there are overcards. Opponents would be likely to fold with no pairs and call with a pair. So if you don't bet at all and they don't either, you win but don't win as much as you would have had you gone all in preflop (those times where they would have called).
This sounds like you're describing the results in a biased way. Sure, it's a great strategy if they fold every time you don't have it because they give you credit for a big hand (in which case, why call preflop at all?), but they call every time you have it because they're pot committed.
I think you misunderstand slightly. I don't shove when I hit my hand. I either check or bet enough that they will call for the rest of it on the turn. Of course, that is not what they would do which makes it a good way to get all of the chips in the middle unless they completely miss.
My range with small stacks is much wider than yours. I will be jamming with 22+ and most AXs hands and most if not all broadways hands as well as many SC's. OK in Ep there are some of those hands I won't jam with but if I haven't raised in a while I often go with all of them.
This is very close to my range as well with small stacks and I am rarely limping at this point. I often pick up a lot of chips at this point because of the old man image I set up earlier.
I think you misunderstand slightly. I don't shove when I hit my hand. I either check or bet enough that they will call for the rest of it on the turn. Of course, that is not what they would do which makes it a good way to get all of the chips in the middle unless they completely miss.
So you're counting on them being observant enough to notice your tight play in the early levels and give you credit, but not observant enough to notice how in these short-stack spots you shove when you don't have it and check or bet small when you do?
What I'm trying to say is that I think your assessment of your strategy and its success has a strong basis in selective memory for times things worked one way and didn't work the other way. I am not sure that if you had an actual systemic process for tracking every hand that your preferred strategy being superior would bear out to be the case in the long run.
But either way, it is still good to study those ranges and concepts and then adjust your game to them.
Like, for example, the tournaments where I play live tend to be pretty soft and loose, which is great for overall winrate, but does require some adjustments. One in particular is that, in the middle stages where stacks are under 40BB and I don't want to be doing too much raising and then folding later in the hand, I have to trim some of my opens that don't play well multiway from early position. (But I can also make up for that by playing more speculative hands in late position, since I'm getting better odds to hit them big, and because I can better assess the situation and maybe pick up the pot if no one seems interested, or call down a bluff with a medium hand if I think it's profitable to do so.)
