Bubble river spot bvb

Honestly, I hate the way this hand is played. Sure it’s great to get aggro around bubble but you want a hand that can hit a flop like 75cc or 89o instead of 93o.

Idk if I would even complete this for half a bb bc the hand is so trash. You can complete, fold to a raise and then bet 1 bb almost all flops that don’t favor a bb bump the table spot as an exploit. Aka I’m betting 1 bb all flops like Axx Kxx Qxx bc normally villian is raising these hands. Then can maybe 2 barrel turn at times as a pure bluff.

As played, you really getting yourself into a dicey spot. All 9x is better than you, 7x has you dead, etc. idk maybe fold to x raise bc what do you beat? How are you going to proceed on turn and river? Normally when you get raised on flop, you going to see a chunky turn bet and river bet. Not fun playing the guessing game. I would pass this spot.

If you feel spicy, put in 1/2 the bb and try to gets check from bb and bet as an exploit good flops for your range.

Generally prefer to bluff-raise suited trash as SB instead of offsuit trash, because you can flop better the times you are called.

I guess I don't hate raising on the stone bubble but I'd play more cautiously postflop given that BB can take a big bite out of us, and presumably isn't stupid enough to go gonzo at you on the bubble without it. Maybe check/call flop instead.

I'm not really sure how to proceed on the river as played. Maybe you could block bet since you chop with nearly every other 9, and if he raised T8 on the flop you might get value there as well. It does feel like the raise flop / check that specific turn line might be 7x, though.

I would just complete this pre, but as played I am shipping the river.

I think his most likely possessions are 9x, which outkicked us, but we now chop with. It will be very hard for him to call us with those hands.

Betting 28-29bb into a 24bb pot is not a ridiculous overbet either.

I was thinking opening 93o might be acceptable due to us having a significant covering stack on the stone bubble, but it appears that it's not.

I ran a quick ICM sim in HRC, assuming 90 players paid, and 91 remaining (you didn't give any details about the size of the tournament).

Anyway this hand was one of the only preflop folds, despite us limping more than 50% of hands and raising more than 40%. So we're supposed to be playing more than 90% of hands, but still folding with this combo. Given that you're OOP against a pro I might even tighten up slightly more.

Opening this hand with a raise was still only a slight EV loss, per HRC. That being said you're too deep to bully the BB with impunity. There's enough value to doubling up in his position that min cashing will not be his overriding concern.

As played pre flop, the flop is probably OK as played. Blind vs blind you'll be stabbing a lot with air, and he should be floating wide. Your hand should be strong enough to value bet for a small size, and you can't really fold immediately facing the raise.

Once he raises flop, then checks back the flush-completing turn, alarm bells should be going off. It looks a lot like he's got a 7. I don't know why he would raise flop with a 9 on the bubble. Flush and straight draws got there so if he was somehow bluffing I would expect him to keep betting... I guess he could have been bluff raising with something like a straight draw that turned an eight.

Anyway I'm at a bit of a loss for how to play river. I guess maybe a tiny block bet could be good. Or I might even check fold, assuming he's going to have it most of the time if he bets here on the bubble.

First I always fold 93o in the SB. On the bubble, before the bubble, after the bubble, HU, against a short stack, etc. I would never limp with 93o because too many things can go wrong and we will almost never flop two pair or trips. I will limp 93s when I have a decent stack of chips and I will always fold to a raise.

Given that we are now OOP in a decent size flop and we hit top pair I would bet as you did though I would likely make it 3 bb's and not 2. Because I am always folding to a raise.

On the river I am just going to check/fold. We called Villain's raise on the flop which makes it look like we have a 9 or conceivably a 7. Or a PP>99 because we raised preflop. So a river bet by BB could be a boat, straight, A9. I just don't think BB raises 4x on the flop with a draw even a straight draw and flush draw.

I think completing is the worst option here. We don't want to play this hand PF, we want to steal the blinds and antes. Folding is certainly more than reasonable. But in this spot it doesn't feel wrong to make a 3 BB stab. Then if villain calls - which I guess we should expect from this type of player - we make a c-bet on flops that are reasonably good for us. I think this one is (even if we there was no 9 in our hand), although it's also a good one to bluff.

The river is difficult of course. I don't see the point in betting, since we probably won't fold out any hand we already beat. A block bet would probably only make him call with an ace, but since he is a good player he might put you on something like 9x, 88, 66 and make a thin value bet with his ace that will be at least a bit bigger than your block. And I guess we have to call at least anything about 65% pot or smaller OTR since he can have hands like KT with one heart that found it nice to take a free card OTT and now will bluff after you checked twice to him.

Difficult but very interesting hand.