satellite spot vs drooler
live satellite for $2k mtt
we have just merged to a 'final table'. 9 left with two $2k tickets and 1250 for third. Reg has closed.
Blinds are 400/800/800
I have 30.5k. Villain in the hand appears to be a drooler, although we only merged tables about an orbit before. He has approx 80k. He's been playing every hand and showing me his cards and I've seen him so far...call very wide pre, open from EP with Q6o. I saw him do one very weird shove on a flop into 3 people but also he has shown me two weirdly nitty river folds. Total button clicker who has no idea (NONE) how to stack his chips and appeared to not understand how satellite works - he asked the floor about what the ticket was for and I genuinely think he just walked in, saw a tournament and bought in with no idea what it was for.
He is UTG and opens to 1600. I’m UTG+1 and go to 5.5k with AJhh. Folds to him and he calls
Flop is Ac2d3d He checks I bet 3.5k he calls
Turn is an offsuit 8. He checks I bet 5k. He twitches, sighs and seems very uncomfortable and then calls. (I think a Hollywood is very unlikely, but I can't totally rule it out)
River is an offsuit 10. He snap leads for 15k
Pot is 29k and I have 18k total behind.
fwiw, I think I have an edge over most of the table.
thoughts on river decision and also...turn sizing.
4 Replies
I think you can 3-bet smaller and as played probably bet the turn bigger. If I did the math right you bet 25% pot on the turn.
I don't know. I feel like if you call vs. this guy you might get shown T8 of diamonds. Or it's possible he just has no idea what he's doing. Have you seen him bluff at all?
I think you can 3-bet smaller and as played probably bet the turn bigger. If I did the math right you bet 25% pot on the turn.
I don't know. I feel like if you call vs. this guy you might get shown T8 of diamonds. Or it's possible he just has no idea what he's doing. Have you seen him bluff at all?
I agree re the 3 bet size. I have to 3b/f here, so it makes sense to go smaller IMO
The only bluff was shoving into 3 people on a 789 board with two clubs and he had Ac4x.
My standard 3-bet size preflop is 3x in position and I do that consistently so the strength of my hand cannot be determined. So I would have made it 4,800
On the flop here the bet size is good.
On the turn I would jam. There is 20,000 in the pot and we have 21,000 or so chips. The sizing of 5,000 at 25%, as Nath points out, is just too small IMO. My normal sizing would be about 10,500 (or 3x the flop sizing) but that would be over 50% effective stack size which is pot committing for us anyway. And I wouldn't want this super loose calling Villain to call with draws because it would be hard for us to know if he hit or not and we wouldn't be able to fold regardless of what card hits the river. Oddly people with draws often call the turn jam because they either think it could be a bluff or they have a double draw and think they are getting the right price to call (which often times they are not).
On the river it is a very tough spot. Intsa bets are typically either very strong or bluffs. The sizing at 50% pot is somewhat polarizing in that it basically puts you all in, otherwise it seems like a strong value bet. When people bet a little less than all chips it usually means strength to me. Because they are basically giving us another reason to call (as we won't get knocked out). My guess here is that he has TT/AT/T8s. I just don't think he has hands like T3s/T2s. If he had hands like 54/A2/A3/A8 and hollywooded the turn, then I think he would have checked the river to get us to bet again and with 2 pair he might have c/r jammed the turn.
I probably call because if anything we underrepped our hand twice on the flop and turn due to our bet sizing, like we had a PP of like 99-KK, which would likely fold to a big river bet.
On one hand, it does not sound like a villian who is going to know what under repping your hand means or even cares what it means. On the other, You are a long way to the money and still have half your stack and an edge on the field , I probably fold to his showing of strength on river.
