100 Dollar Satellite vs loose passive
Went and played hundred dollar satellite at local casino. Putting to use the new knowledge I’ve learned from a book and everything was going swell….. until.
Blinds are 300/600/600 LJ limps and HJ folds. I have 19k and dealt AsJc and raise it to 4K in CO. A bit large maybe. Button and SB fold. BB goes all in for 11k and LJ folds. BB has been loose passive and even nitty and I’ve only seen him raise twice and both times shown down AK. Been doing a lot of limp calling and folding for entire satellite that’s been going for roughly 75 minutes. I end up folding. Felt good about it until later a loose and tilted guy doesn’t look at his cards and goes all in for 6k UTG. I have 14k at this point and get dealt AA. I Hollywood and then jam hoping to get another caller. Folds to BB who is same guy who jammed on me on prior hand history and he jams as well. UTG has J7o. BB has 88s. He flops and 8 and I’m out of the satellite. Sucks but I know he’s gonna win 1/5. I’m wondering now though if he jammed on me light on prior hand with a pocket pair like 88s. What do you think?
8 Replies
Fold is really bad with AJ. You are getting almost 3-1.
Yeah I'd fold the AJo here. In a satellite with this structure you really don't need to be getting it in light. The flat payout means surviving matters way more than accumulating chips.Against a loose passive villain especially, just let them spew to other people. No need to put yourself at risk when you can wait for a better spot and let the table dynamics work in your favour.
Satellite rule of thumb when stacks get shallow: You should be the pusher, (almost) never the caller. That mostly includes fold to re-raises when you are still a little bit too deep to open shove. And AJo is not a monster, in fact even in regular tournaments we shall mostly fold it if we opened from earlier pos and got re-raised.
This seems fairly early in the satellite and you aren't calling for your whole stack, so you need to call the shove getting 3-1.
Pot odds don't translate the same way in satellites. Chip EV and prize EV are completely different things when the payout is flat. You can be getting 5-1 and still have a clearly wrong call if folding keeps you in a position to cash. That's the whole point of satellite ICM. Calling off a third of your stack with AJo against a player who's only raised twice and shown AK both times is a spot I'd be very happy to fold out of.
I know that cEV != $EV. The blinds are 300/600, so this must be fairly early on. You can't take a big loss in cEV at that stage when you are not even gambling for most of your stack.
The blinds are 300/600, so this must be fairly early on. You can't take a big loss in cEV at that stage when you are not even gambling for most of your stack.
Losing that call leaves you at 8k with 300/600 blinds, which is 13 BBs. In a satellite that's a shove-or-fold stack, and you've gone from comfortable to scrambling. Satellite ICM isn't just a bubble concept, the flat payout structure means stack preservation matters the whole way through, and that's before you even factor in being likely dominated based on this specific player's history.
