2k live mtt

I think you kinda have to call flop raise. You are folding way too much if you just fold to a flop raise in this spot with an overpair. Should have decent equity against range. x raise range should include flush draws, straight draws, etc.

Turn- yea idk that spot is so obnoxious. I would probably fold bc I think it’s a massive punt of way too many BBs when you call and are crushed. Still not sure what villian wants to jam there when it’s value? Only though is scared 2 pair, set, maybe some weaker straights trying to not let you see a 5th card. Hard to say.

Live poker is weird- sometimes folks will jam the nuts on the turn in a spot where they should just bet and let you see a 5th card to extract more value.

Would love to see what others say here. Just don’t think you can fold to flop x raise bc you are folding way way too much if you are. Think you can happily fold turn- it’s the kinda spot where if villian is jamming a flush draw or A8 etc, you just go nice play and move on to the next hand. Think punting 110bb is a much bigger mistake than say hero calling and somehow winning a 200+ bb pot. There are still many better spots to be found with 100+ BBs. Would prolly just pass the spot unless you had some sick soul read where villian can be behind JJ

Also what was average stack of tourny. I think I would open to like 1100-1200 if stacks were more mid to shallow. Don’t see point of making it 3x. Kinda nit picky but think you should try to keep pots small if you think you have a skill edge. If 4 are calling 3x, it’s the same think if you make it 1100 or 1200 and you keep pot smaller and just increase the spr. I like keeping pots smaller to effectively play deeper post flop it I think I have a skill edge (which sorry to live poker; most folks on 2+2 have a huge edge over the general live mtt player population).

I think we need to bet this flop but I also think folding to the x/r might be best unless you think he gets really aggro/out of line. Is it highly exploitable taking this line but I think you would need him x/r extremely wide to call as half the deck is going to be a problem on the turn/river. A good player can definitely own the **** out of you here but if he's really getting out of line then call the raise and prepare to call down

Against 4 players I will often check a flop that is not in our raising range. But here there are going to be players with Ax, Kx, and Qx hands and the fact that we have J hearts makes it a bet.

I will always call an OOP raise of 3x or less when I have an overpair. So I like the flop c/r call.

The turn jam for like 250% pot is polarizing to the extreme. But I just doubt it is a bluff over 40% of the time (which we need it to be to make calling worth it). The flop smacked the BB's range. Why the BB jammed is because they don't want to play OOP on the river where they will be virtually pot committed if they want to bet 75% pot or more on the turn. BB likely has 2 pair or a set and gets that you called the c/r with an over pair or a flush draw. BB could have a straight but I think that is less likely. I think that BB is concerned that you could have 99 and a gutter so does not want to bet 50% pot or less. Also there are very few river cards that the BB would be comfortable about. If an A, K, Q, J, or T hit we could have top set and if we have an underpair would never call a big river bet. Any other card makes it unlikely we would call a river all in, and a heart would make it difficult to win more as well (we could have a flush).

So I would fold here. But the fact is that this huge turn bet could be a bluff and we could see it after we fold... Its just that when I do this turn jam thing at more than 200% pot it is rarely a bluff and if called I am a 60% to 80% favorite...

Against an unknown or rec player, I think it's an easy fold. Making it more difficult is that I know he is very capable of big bluffs and is good enough to know that this board is great for a bb range to put an EP opener into the blender

I’m pretty much face up as an over pair or a flush draw by the turn I think, so I guess his motivation for the giant overbet is either…
- bluff shove because it’s too hard to call such a big bet with those hands or
- value shove because he doesn’t think I’m capable of folding those hands!

compounding the issue I think is that I'm dead or almost dead to his value and only about 70% vs his bluffs

I had made up my mind to call a reasonable turn bet when I called the flop. This was not a reasonable turn bet though!

Tough spot. I think calling the flop x/r is fine since you block the Jh draw and overpairs can't just fold to one raise on a wet board. But when he bombs turn for 250% pot against someone who's basically face up as an overpair, I'd probably find a fold. Good players don't usually pick that sizing as a bluff line at these stakes live.