(Satellite) 3bb on the bubble
(Satellite) 3bb on the bubble

(Satellite) 3bb on the bubble

I felt very mixed between jamming and folding - chose to jam bc I'd be entering the blinds next hand, and the other shortie seemed ICM aware. I'm still learning the format, and would appreciate some feedback so I can be less unsure next time.

iPoker - 600/1200 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 3.3 BB
SB: 3.47 BB (VPIP: 16.82, PFR: 7.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 111)
BB: 39.07 BB (VPIP: 40.63, PFR: 40.98, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 71)

3 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.8 BB) Hero has 8 8

Hero raises to 3.2 BB, fold, BB calls 2.2 BB

Flop: (7.19 BB, 2 players) K T 2

Turn: (7.19 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (7.19 BB, 2 players) 3

Hero mucks 8 8 (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 54%, Flop 47%, Turn 0%)
BB shows J Q (Straight, King High)
(Pre 47%, Flop 53%, Turn 100%)
BB wins 7.19 BB

30 April 2026 at 07:41 PM
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7 Replies



Has to be a jam. If you are folding this, you are folding too much. Sorry it didn't work out on this occasion.


In my opinion you did the right thing and you had a 54% chance of surviving in this case. 88 is going to be a big favorite of at least 70% in many cases (probably like close to 75% of hands), be a slight favorite maybe close to 25% of the time, and be an underdog very rarely (like about 2%) against PP > 88. Now chip leader would likely fold the worst of his hands. The SB with slightly more chips than you might actually fold a hand like 99. But still even if SB plays all PP>88 it means that you are only going to face one of those 4% to 5% of the time.

If you fold SB will basically always fold and you will be BB the next hand with 1.2 bb's back. Not sure how the Chip Leader would play it with a bad hand in the SB, but they might limp in with some hands and jam with all hands better than Q7 as well as SC's. So your chance of surviving could be a lot less than with 88 here.


Yeah, if the other short stack knows what they're doing, this is a definite jam. You can't outlast them so you need to make a move while you can and this hand is certainly good enough.


Right decision, wrong result.


Just because I wanted to find out, especially since he's likely calling wide: Every hand that is flipping or better against you is still only about 21% of hands. (20.8 if you include the other 88, 21.2% if you don't.) So bad luck to even run into a hand with that much equity against you.


Agree that you have to jam here.

One general tip unrelated to this exact situation. When you're in a scenario where one player has a massive chip stack, you're on the bubble and the other two players are both ultra short... You would much prefer to jam into the other short stack's big blind when possible. You'll have some real fold equity against them, whereas the big stack can basically call with any two. Here though with 3 BB and such a relatively strong hand you just have to go with it.

It's also highly relevant that if the short stacks keep folding you are going to blind out first. If your opponent was going to blind out first there would be more of an argument for waiting it out and forcing them to put their tournament life on the line first.


by GreatWhiteFish m

One general tip unrelated to this exact situation. When you're in a scenario where one player has a massive chip stack, you're on the bubble and the other two players are both ultra short... You would much prefer to jam into the other short stack's big blind when possible. You'll have some real fold equity against them, whereas the big stack can basically call with any two.

Agreed, although, since we didn't see the previous action, I want to suggest the possibility that the big stack was just shoving every hand and so the opportunity never arose.

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