Too Good To Bet?
A friend asked for insights about his play.
300BB effective live tournament.
Late position is defended by a good loose-aggressive player,
capable of over-betting light and applying pressure thru multiple streets.
Hero defended his BB with Q♣J♣.
Flop: K♣ T♦ 4♠
Hero checks and then raises 3 times the 1.5x pot bet, which gets called.
Turn: A♦
Hero checks.
Friend’s reasoning was that this card improves Hero’s perceived range so much that betting might actually fold out too many worse hands and isolate versus very strong continues, whereas checking could induce bluffs/value bets from hands that now interpret Hero as having “given up.”
Would love some opinions about the turn check after the flop check-raise?
6 Replies
Hero has the nuts here 300 BBs deep -- he should not be afraid of "isolating against very strong continues". No he should be praying for it. Go for max value. V has lots of hands that will pay a chunky turn bet, or even raise on the turn. AA, AK, KQ/KJ/AQ/KT/QT/JT (especially with one or two diamonds), and whatever backdoor diamonds called the flop x/r. V also might have a set, although at 300 bbs, he might have 4-bet the flop. If H bets big on flop and scare card comes on river (really only a diamond or the board pairs), V can slow down and evaluate. But now is the time to build a stack, rather than to try to get a few extra BBs on the river vs. a marginal holding (assuming that even works).
A friend asked for insights about his play.300BB effective live tournament.Late position is defended by a good loose-aggressive player,capable of over-betting light and applying pressure thru multiple streets.Hero defended his BB with Q♣J♣.Flop: K♣ T♦ 4♠Hero checks and then raises 3 times the 1.5x pot bet, which gets called.Turn: A♦Hero checks.Friend’s reasoning was that this card im
Villain called a flop check raise on a double broadway rainbow board. What is he doing this with? Hands like AK, KK, TT, 44 (assuming he doesnt 4 bet them otf) are all well within villains range and aren’t folding to a turn bet. Hands like KdX that have some backdoor fluah equity might also call your cr and continue on the turn. You show a good bit of strength with your flop line; a good villain isnt going to think that strength went away even with an ace ott. Odds are he just checks back if you check. He likely has SDV but isn’t all that confident that he has you beat.
The only reason to check here is to go for another check-raise if you're confident he'll bet (and an ace is a pretty good card for that). You have the nuts 300BB deep, and you don't block any board cards, so all the two pair and set hands are in your opponent's range. Your goal is to build the biggest pot possible in this situation, not get cute to just win one more bet from the weaker part of his range. It's more valuable to get a ton of money in when he has AA/KK/AK/TT or some such.
It is important to know Villain's preflop raise sizing. I assume it is 3 bb's at 300 bb effective stack.
When Villain raises 1.5x pot on the flop it is rarely a bluff. A bluff would work at a pot size amount just as frequently. And the fact that Villain called a 3x raise at roughly 30 bb's is significant as well. Villain has at least top pair and a likely BDFD or two pair or a set or even possibly QJ. Personally I don't c/r with a straight draw that doesn't have any overcards but we do have a BDFD. Its just the amount is huge and the flop smashes Villain's range.
Checking the turn means that we will win the least amount if we hold. There are hands which we should not be giving Villain a free river. Like what is now just a gutter with a pair after a BDFD didn't make it. Or what is now a flush draw. Or a two pair/set hand that would likely call a decent sized turn bet. And Villain will not be bluffing against us on either remaining street because by now Villain has at least a pair (or they wouldn't have called the huge flop c/r).
The thing is that after a c/r a Villain will rarely bet the next street because another c/r is lurking. Now the fact that the turn is an A and Villain could have moved from one pair to two pairs or even turned a set and by checking we are sort of claiming that we might possibly fold. But if Villain improved with the A they will call a large turn bet anyway. If we had say KT checking the turn would be a lot worse than block betting at like 20% to 25% pot.
My turn bet sizing here would likely be about the same size as the flop c/r size. That makes it look like we are afraid Villain might have gotten there (and Villain could have gotten there with a flush draw as well...) Villains will almost always call a same size bet on the turn.
There are a lot of river cards that will be dicey for us. If the board pairs. If the diamond flush gets there. If a Q or J hits. So roughly half the remaining deck. We can make blocking size bets when that happens. And if it doesn't happen we can make a huge polarizing pot sized river bet (which would be roughly half effective stack) or a smallish bet that looks like we could be scared Villain improved on the turn.
You should not expect a bet often when you have a range advantage in a board. You lose value by checking because most of V's range will just happily check back to realise their equity and the stronger holdings would have called your bet anyway.
The merit of checking is that it induces bluff, but when the board is strong for your range villain should not bluff often and also much rarer to bluff 2 streets after you checked.
I think your friend's logic is a little off - villain will most likely have hands like KQ,QQ,JJ,AK,AJ,AQ,etc - none of these will be turned into a bluff if we check the turn. Most likely the turn will get checked back or if he does bet it's going to be 2 pr+. You also mentioned the villain bet pot 1.5x - this seems like a very strong range that we should be capitalizing on by betting large on the turn. All the value here is punishing strong hands after we made the nuts - checking is a disaster.
