OT: Sklansky/Chubukov rankings - what am I missing?
Recently i had little conversation with Vers about calling K6o and pushing T7o reg vs reg sb/bb. He said that NOT pushing T7o 9BB deep is a serious leak. I was surprised, since it seemed ridiculous to me. So I made some calculations, and by doing that, it made me also think about S/C rankings.
And I found out that something is not OK there. Since I assume S/C numbers are OK, I have to do mistake somewhere... Where?
Assumptions are following:
1. S/C numbers show amount of BB which you can profitably shove from SB if hand was folded to you, and opponent (BB) knows your hand.
2. S/C no. for T7o is ~10.5 (hope I remember correctly, I looked at it in the morning, cannot find it on the web).
3. Any pair, any J or better, T9, T8 and T7s are better hands and will call, while all other hands are worse and will fold.
I used PokerStove. According to PS, there are 59.3% better hands, and if called, T7o is 36.8% dog against that range. Blinds 100/200. We push he folds - we gain 200, we push he calls - we gain/lose 2000.
(0.407 x 200) + (0.593 x 0.368 x 2000) - (0.593 x 0.632 x 2000) = 81.4 + 436 - 749 = -231 chips.
If my math is correct, we are losing over 1BB on average. So where is the mistake?