Massive over jam early with QQ
We are playing a small live daily tournament with a $150 buy in and good starting stack (30k in chips with 100/100 no ante on first level), but 15-minute levels before the re-enter period closes, and 30-minute levels afterwards.
We are on level 3, and both me and V in this hand have been very active both with about $36k in chips. The blinds are 150/300/300. V opens UTG to 800, HJ and CO flat. I look down at QQ from the BU and make it 3800 to go. Back to V and he piles.
I had just read a Doug Polk post on employing the massive 4 bet shove pf in cash games (he doesn't recommend it in tournaments), and the range in these spots is very heavily tilted towards AK, but also contains some KK, QQ, and JJ (and even AQ) depending on the positions of the players. It never has AA in it. But those ranges are constructed for cash games and are heads up without the dynamic of the two flatters between us.
Anyhow, I tanked for a while and ....
What do you guys do here?
2 Replies
What's that claim based off of, that it never has AA in it?'
Completely disagree it can't be used in MTTs. I could show credible data for 3b frequencies and range compositions, fold vs 3b tendencies, and show that it's a viable exploit.
I do this with AA EP open vs BTN 3b as I see those 3bs too tight and underfolding vs big 4bets. Like those QQ for example--totally reasonable to think BTN 3b range should fold QQ and AKo vs the 4b. Data says it doesn't happen enough.
Shit as tight as these squeezes come in here (EP opener, 3bb sizing) it's not crazy to think KK should fold too. But they wont...
Even with blockers AA gonna get looked up like 50/50 I'm pretty sure.
Flat pre with QQ at a good frequency also seems really justifiable. Maybe a 50/50 mix I'd play here.
As played, guess I fold. NH if he has AK...
Also I have played certainly in cash games where I've seen guys do this with AA. Lost with KK calling if off at least once. So in my experience its not accurate to say never here.
According to the solvers quoted by the Doug Polk article, it should never be AA if your opponent is playing GTO. But as explained, there are several caveats to that: (1) this was a deep cash game simulation (although, I imagine this deep and early in the tournament, there isn't too much difference), (2) the positions are different, and (3) all the actions is heads up without the two flatters of the initial raise.
Here are the charts from the article:
That one is LJ vs. HJ.
This one is CU v. BU:
Here's the article if you want to read it:
But those GTO charts probably don't explain human behavior, especially in a low buyin live tournament. So if V's range is mostly, or even heavily AA here, that should be very exploitable and we always fold.
