Live $675 WSOPc Bounty Event 88 in the sb

Call

what are the positions? calling generally...

we are 9 handed, all fold to MP big stack who opens then folds to me in the sb, I call and bb folds.

Ok, I think calling the flop here is good.

So I call and red 6 comes on turn. It goes x/x, I think developing a turn donking ranges at some frequency is ok but w/e checking for the most part.

River is a red Q, I check he pots it, im thinking any card J or better is good for his range. Do you call here? The call is for like 1/3 of my stack

I think we can bet river here, smallish, maybe 1/3 pot with the plan to fold to a raise.

Check calling his bet though? Well, we’ve got a very disguised second pair and we’ve checked every street. Wouldn’t be that surprising for him to show up with some sort of Axcc Kxcc hand.

Think you have to call most of the time vs reg fold vs rec.

I think this is a particularly good turn card for you to lead, with an overpair and an open-ender, and to deny equity to overcards that check back / to not be put in a spot to essentially guess when an ace through ten comes on the river.

With an overpair to the board and a str8 draw, I don't understand why you checked turn.

I think he has AQ, probably one a club, approximately 103% of the time here.

Last hand of the day, why not jam preflop? He’s going to smirk fold everything but AA KK.

Or bet out half pot on flop

I mean, it looks pretty obvious to be AQ o. He continued on the flop and then hit his gin card on river. It sucks cuz the A on river is an easy fold. But I think I give away 1/3 of my chips as played and leave pissed off that I made river call. At least I have a day to get over it.

My thought process was I wanted to cap the turn to 1 bet. If we lead it gives him a chance to 2b. If he does go ahead and raise our lead big there then we playing for stacks on the final hand. I thought he could raise a lead with a draw, AK,AQ or just pure air. If we did lead turn, I don't think we can fold if we get raised.

I thought by x/c flop it minimises the pot, the times we behind (mainly bigger overpairs but some sets, 2p's) and maximises it when we ahead (keep in all his bluffs for river play, mainly two overs and fd's). I felt my range is mostly checking turn as we don't have many nutted hands that x/c flop and lead turn, so he may attack a perceived capped range.

Not saying leading turn is bad, but I don't expect many folds right then and there. Arguments for both I guess.

I don't know how you expect any folds as played.

I see your point about the turn but I think I lose less betting turn/possibly win the pot rather than finding myself at the river, facing his 1/3 my stack bet.

As played, my concern would be that I stubbornly call the river because I don't believe i let him get there. His willingness to play for stacks on the last hand of the day may actually make a fold easier.

This is probably a viable play as well. I don't think his calling range will be this tight, but I do think he could be opening extra-wide on the last hand of the day.

Did some crunching on equilab. If we give V 28% of hands which I think is being conservative for the last hand, 88 has 65% equity otr. T - Q rivers give us basically the same equity. Only an ace river (last screenshot) is really good for his range bringing us down to 55% and a K is somewhat in the middle giving us 61%. All non club rivers. Accordingly, it looks like we should we calling T - Q here and only folding to the ace and sometimes the king.

Plz let me know if there is any flaws in this analysis

I would think his middle position would cut against him opening extra wide but his CL status would make it more likely.

Any results?

If Villain is making a pot sized bet on the river that would be 14 bb's and over half your stack. You should have 24 bb's left at this point.

I like the way you played preflop, flop and turn.

On the river I would probably check (because of the Q) but I think a lead out of 5 bb's would be a good value/blocking bet. If he raises I would likely fold as I doubt he would be bluff raising because you can have a straight.

As played I think I probably fold. It is a polarizing bet size so the question is: is Villain going to overbluff here? He needs to be bluffing 33% of the time for this to be break even. I doubt he is bluffing more than 33% in this spot because it is the last hand day 1 (though as CL he may not worry about his stack size for Day 2). With hands like AK/AJ he is likely going to check back because you could also be on a club draw. If he misses his flush draw then yes it could be a bluff but he does have AQ/KQ/QJ/QT hands that could have gotten there and I doubt the bluff rate for flush draws will be > 33%.

Thanks, im sure the call was for 33% of my stack because I remember counting out the calling chips. I could have had some sizing wrong on previous streets as its always hard in these live tournies having no hh. All I had a was a note on my phone about the hand. If the call was for half my stack, I would have folded for sure

I didn't want to come back salty and short having made this call and lost so I actually ended up folding and he didn't show. I had been playing for like 12 hours and was super tired so just wanted to go home and rest up for day 2.

I ended up FT bubble coming 10th out of 265, I still got a good bag of bounties and a min cash out of it so all was not lost, but I think if I could go back and replay this hand I would call the river. If I had call and won I would have a top 10 stack going into day two