Live $600 MTT facing overbet river shove

I mean he can 1.5x jam nearly everything for value all his boats flushes and trips with a diamond I guess. There’s a ton of bluffs imho. I’m probably calling sometimes KQ/KT with a d, maybe AJ with Ad?

We are pretty capped so feel inclined to call if I can I guess.

Obv vs some players this is just an auto fold.

I think we should be betting that flop often.

I dunno why you wouldn't range bet flop if you think SB's range is small-mid pocket pair heavy; this is a great board to put the heat on.

I don't really know what I'd call with because the flop check back caps our range (unless we're checking back KK which is obviously a no-brainer river call). That's part of the problem here. The other part is the difficulty in showing up with Kx or Jx that doesn't block the most obvious bluff, QT.

The villain as described doesn't sound like someone who's gonna have a bluff very often here. So with the range we get here with, this is probably just a fold 100% of the time unless you trapped with your sets on the flop or checked back the nut flush draw. (Even then I don't feel great about the nut flush; this seems like it could easily be 55/JJ.)

I had A♦ K♣ here.

I had it in my head that he pretty much always has a pocket pair that was just going to check/fold, but also that these guys get incredibly stabby on turns after check backs. I decided with my nut flush blocker and no risk of peeling an over card to my top pair that I’d check back and call 100% turns and rivers for hopefully a little bit extra value from my hand. I also did this for a bit of pot control since I’d have a tough time ever folding to an x/r. I think I might do the same with a hand like AdJd or TdJd, and occasionally I’d trap with my sets.

The turn bet already made me a little bit uncomfortable since these guys generally didn’t seem so quick to put much of their stacks at risk postflop. Then the river became a very tough spot for me. Had sizings been smaller this is obviously a very easy call down as played (I considered raising turn since I wasn’t sure he’d continue bluffs on the river, but then decided against it after his turn sizing).

man it sucks but I would fold and live to see another day because you have an edge on the field and would still have 22-23ish bb left which is defo workable.
if you were up against some super sicko you might be inclined to call, but against a random dude this spot is just heavily under bluffed esp at this stage of the mtt.
you are pretty high up in your range but as said such a heavily under bluffed spot.
with that said honestly i always bet a 1/3 pot at least maybe like even 40-45% on the flop with a fd and broadway straight cards on the flop.

I call with your specific hand or better in this spot. I consider a fold if I don’t that the A diamonds. The only hands that makes sense that kills you are QJ d or 55.

Agree with the above poster. Call with AdKx fold everything worse. We block the most likely diamond combos and beat QT and random bluffs. You haven't shown strength so far and there's no reason to bet 1.5x pot if he's scared of losing you.

I think villain has a k and thinks his kicker problem was solved by the paired board on the river and you haven’t played it like a flush draw.

Agree with this. I think I cbet this flop 100% of time. Easy 20-33% cbet of flop- gets a lot of folds and easy to play against a x raise etc. Only hands I might not cbet are KK or JJ.

Btw this is a massive mistake not c betting flop. You can just cbet flop, bet turn and set up a river jam. Why make the game tough? You have to play a guessing game on river when you play line like you did. Idk what I would do on river but your hand is super underepped so I think you almost have to call with a diamond blocker. You prolly run into pps a lot here like you said but your hand is so good- if they spazz KQ or AJ here, you just have to call river to not be exploited. Prolly folding to a super nit on river though.

I mean,

1)That's not really a bad result, you win the pot and deny villain their 10% equity or whatever.
2)This requires an overly confident assessment of villain's range. So he's not calling, say, KQs from the SB?
3)Continuing and how villain continues (call or check-raise) gives you some more clarity on their range.

Yeah, that's another problem, you've sacrificed any chance of pot control. A 1/3 pot c-bet gets value and clarity, and lets you control the pot more, if, say, you bet flop and turn and then that river comes. You played it in a way to set yourself up to guess. And it's a tough guess, because your check would cap your range in a way that a thinking player would attack, but you also think this player isn't tricky enough for that and is betting large, so now you're just in a pure guessing mode.

if v thinks you have a weak range, what is he targetting for val?

Don't see how you can fold this, after flop goes check-check he's going to start running so many bluffs, you have TPTK with nut flush blocker, probably best bluff catcher you'll ever have in this spot, unless we have a great live read or past hand histories where this guy has been a nit I don't think you have a choice

*CIA Agent voice (over airplane noise)* Well, was him shoving on the river part of your plan?

I think you have to call. On top of KQ & 66-99 he could also have AK. If he has KJ JJ or 55, oh well.

Also, major FPS alert on the flop. 😃

I ended up folding. Not sure about the decision. I play mostly cash and when a random bets 1.5x pot, especially as a river shove, I can feel pretty confident that it’s underbluffed - until I have reason to believe otherwise about the villain. So my thought process at the time was, “this guy has given me no indication that he’s the type to shove 1.5x as a bluff so I’m defaulting to him underbluffing here”; but tournaments are different and plenty of people are ready to spaz out, so hard to say.