Live $550 survivor bubble spot
Live $550 survivor tournament 94 entrants
11 left top 9 get $5000, 10th gets $2000
I am the shortest stack with 3.8 bb, next shortest stack is LJ at my table has about 8 bb, everyone else has 12+ bb
My table is 6 handed other table is 5 handed
SB is chip leader with 30 bbish and has been calling very wide to end the tournament
I peel K4o on the BU, jam or fold??
5 Replies
Easy fold to me. Why play crap when you know you are getting called and you have 4 hands or a final table redraw to find something Better. Do they combine at ten or nine for the final table? Bb ante?
BB ante, there's no final table redraw, they will rebalance 5 and 5 once down to 10 if someone from our table busts first, otherwise I have three more hands until I'm in BB
Is BB short enough that you think you have fold equity against him?
I think this is likely a fold, although with K4s or K9o I think you have to jam. maybe even K8o.
Having a wide caller sucks for the risk but does mean we can get our money in good when we get it in. I think you're too often against two cards in the middle (between your K and 4) here, though, which is why the extra equity from being suited, or a higher card that changes it so you're more likely to be dominating or to still have six outs if he hits his lower pair, helps.
(When you're not behind, obviously.)
Pre covid, we played 10 handed at the final table at my local casino. Post COVID we combine at 9. It sucks when you are not yet in money playing 5 and 5 handed when short stacked. No final table redraw because survivor pays nine. Duh!
The bb ante and the fact that you have folds from all the early position players makes me more likely to shove here. K4 of is probably in the top 40% of hands.
Sometimes in this type of situation I might even raise 3bbs, leaving myself .8 bbs with the following logic: let's say the sb wants to get me all in, he has to raise to 5bbs to do it, bb may fold for the 5bbs, but where if I shove and small blind calls he can get in for 2.8bbs. I would then never bet off my .8bb, only call it off.
Plus, where I play now, they are so bad at bubble strategy and final table strategy, I would be able to count on someone bluffing to try to win the side pot or leading 4bbs from the small, making bb fold sometimes.
I would also want to know if the room has a rule about dual knockouts splitting the money or if they go by chip count. Finally, I would also want to know if the room contributes your stack to the bb ante or bb first. If bb, you have 4 hands, one more hand, to survive and limp to the money.
I think I would try to survive rather than double up in your spot because you are on the true bubble and one spot away from the only in the money ICM inflection point.
This is as close to satellite endgame strategy as it gets.