MSMTT quick checkup thread

I don't like 3 betting here because what's our plan for the flop? Fire a cbet vs his strong range on boards containing an overcard, which will be most of them? Slow down and check multiple streets? 99 is barely strong enough to 3 bet pre against an UTG raise, never mind the 5x, which is presumably a very tight range.

As the above poster said I don't even hate folding since we have a huge raise + awkward hand + just doubled up the hand before, so can take a breather. But I'd probably call and hope for a decent flop.

I think I just fold unless he has a history of making goofy large raises like this from UTG with weak or marginal hands. But working from my own live experience, you're basically hoping it's AK/AQ and not TT+. I mean we're not gonna see him turn over ATo or 66 or JTs at that size, I can't imagine.

The specifics of the tendencies you've talked about would help here. Do you ever think he shows up with a worse pair or an overcard hand he would raise/fold?

Satellite Tourney

9 Left 8 advance

Action folds to hero in SB i have 6.5 BBs
I look down at J6 spades

BB has about 4 bbs left after posting BB + Ante

There is one other small stack that also has about that have to pay blinds 5 hands from now.

Do i jam in this spot?

The other small stack has about 4 big blinds

If BB is a nit or a solid reg then yes, if unknown just fold imho, too many times in this spot you get some kind of spaz call from AT/33 or something and gg.

5 off the money in a $1.5k buyin live MTT.

Hero has 20bb utg, 7 handed.

Hero opens to 2bb, MP ( approx 40bb) calls. SB (>50bb) raises to 8bb. SB just moved to the table so no reads.

There are at least 5 stacks shorter than Hero. While hero tries to just play well and not worry about the stakes, cashing here would mean a lot.

Jam or fold?

Alternatively, one poker buddy said that they would open jam this spot. I don't like this play, but I'm open to discussion on it.

What's your hand?

Since you didn't give a hand, I'll say that I am jamming JJ+ and AK.

Being '5 off the money' is incomplete; are there 100 players or 20? That matters as to how close the bubble is, and also how valuable a double would be.

If there are only 20 players left; then we aren't especially close to the $; we are also close to the big payouts. That would expand my jamming range. In a very large field, neither of the above is true, and I'd tighten my range...

Sorry missed that. It's AQo.

23 players left, 18 paid. Hand is AQo.

I’m with the buddy that jams, but as played I think it’s a fold.
At best you’re flipping (SB shouldn’t have any AJ or lower) and although a double up would have some value, playing on with 18BB has more.

Thanks. What's your reasoning for the open jam?

Open ripping AQos utg off 20bb is fail. I like the raise/fold if ITM is our first priority.

I mean tbh if ITM is super important to you no one can stop you from folding your way there.

I think AQo is too good to fold facing the squeeze play from the big stack. I would consider 4 bet jamming. Occasionally we're going to run into a monster but the big stack may just be putting pressure on us.

Our stack is a little large for the open jam, though I don't hate it. I'd probably do it if I didn't feel I had a skill edge.

Overall, I don't think we should think about the money yet as 20% of the field has to bust before we get there. I hate ending up with a micro stack and min cashing because I've played too tight in these spots.

We’re seven handed, utg is MP. So yeah, maybe 20BB is a bit too big, but we’re jamming a hand at the bottom of a range that is the top 6 or 7%.

Raise/fold is fine.

We want calls from AT and we’re never that unhappy to see 33 even if it is a flip.

Not sure if srs.

When the ICM is heavy, everyone with decent stacks is disincentivized from flipping; a jam can fold out mid-pair type hands that could 3-bet jam over you and force you to fold. (If you're really lucky, you might get an AKo fold from someone who thinks you'd never do this without a pair, but I wouldn't bank on it.)

I think UTG/7 is too early to do it with, though. Too many people to get through, and thus too high of a chance of running into a premium hand. (It's still not super high in the aggregate, but with your lead over the shorter stacks and 7 people to get through, I still think it's too risky.)

As played, I'd just fold-- we have 0 fold equity at this depth. As I calculated it, assuming BB ante, SB would be calling 12BB to play for 32BB-- 2.66:1, 27.27% equity needed by cEV, and as a healthily covering stack villain doesn't face much ICM pressure against you. Villain can't really fold anything they 3-bet with, and there's no reason yet to assume he's 3-betting light enough for that to be good for you. Plus, there's always the very slim chance MP was trapping. It's not fun to raise/fold this, but as the hand played out, I think it's okay.