gross spot with big draw vs tight opponent
hero starts the hand with ~2800, A♥K♣J♣5♥ button straddle to 25, one limp, hero raises UTG+1 to 75 (missed the limper), three callers, limper calls, 5 ways to a flop of
A♣T♠9♣ (375)
checks to hero who bets pot, tight villain (covers) next to act repots to 1500, mediocre reg calls all-in with 875, folds back to hero.
this villain is very passive preflop and could absolutely have flatted with AA after i raised. he is not scared money but i think the worst hand he's potting here is like, TT with some backup or a full wrap + clubs. honestly he just has AA a lot. the caller can have any sort of draw given stacks.
6 Replies
You have direct odds to call.
Call and call any non-pairing turn.
I think you are 38.6% vs the tighty and have an overlay due to the other guy and likely have 34.2% of the main.
Quickly calculating this I think you have an EV of 526 in the main and -346 in the side for a total EV of 181 - pretty clear win.
This is based on shoving, which, I think is a no brainer here compared to calling.
For the tighty this range is 1789 hands and of those 903 have AA in them, so, I think this is pretty reasonable as an approximation and this is how I'd analyze this.
i guess it would have been helpful to say in the OP that obv i am never folding, the question is between what you suggest vs. gii, and how we account for the impact of the 3rd player. i don't have a great mental shortcut for side pot vs main pot equity, so found myself just doing a lot of mental math on the spot.
also - i know running it twice doesn't matter in terms of overall equity once we get it in, but in this case, it seems relevant that we could get it in now and run it twice to avoid having to fold to a board pair on the first turn, right? (everyone involved goes twice)
If you are never folding, just gii now. Puts pressure on him (especially if he has TT), you have a lot of equity, and you do get to see two boards.
also - i know running it twice doesn't matter in terms of overall equity once we get it in, but in this case, it seems relevant that we could get it in now and run it twice to avoid having to fold to a board pair on the first turn, right? (everyone involved goes twice)
It's mostly only relevant due to the balance considerations of how Hero plays his range in this spot (and on the turn after calling). Presumably, villain is almost never folding when you jam. Since another player is all-in, you still get most of the same informational value at showdown as when you fold the turn on paired boards.
Reducing in-game stack variance for all 3 involved players is also a reasonable consideration.
