Equities in PLO
Can someone please help me understand equities in plo? Specifically, how I get from outs to equity. For instance, why does 2pair have 25% equity OTF vs a straight, but only 20% equity vs a flush? Or how does a set OTF have 37% vs a straight?
10 Replies
You do the same things you do in holdem exactly. It's math.
Give some examples of those situations where you have a 4 card hand against a 4 card hand. It is very possible that there are outs that you aren't considering, or redraw outs that you aren't considering. The probabilities for outs will be a little different than in holdem, because there will be more cards seen. There will also be more outs that you don't notice when you focus on the two cards that might make a set, or flush or straight. The other cards often can come into play and I'm guessing that is where you are seeing what seem to be anomalies, but really aren't.
It’s likely your are including backdoor straight draws in your sims that increase equity against a straight but not a flush.
You guys are right I guess. In the appendix of Strategies to Beat Small Stakes Plo from Matthias Plum he provides a table of common hand vs hand scenarios. Vs. a straight he lists 2pair with having 24%. Vs. a flush, however, with only 19% (with 2 cards to come in both cases).
So I put it into Omaha Equilab as follows:
However, if I choose specific hands without meaningful backdoor draws, the equities are similar:
The first results are still a bit surprising though, as you'd imagine that a straight comes, on average, more often with cards that block a 2pairs outs to improve and would therefore perform better vs. a 2pair than a flush does. I'd be interested in what you guys think the reason is for this.
And what's the conclusion in general? As long as I can't rule out meaningful backdoor draws, I assign my myself in a 2pair vs straight scenario ~24% equity and if I can rule them out, I take ~20%?
I guess I just realized that a 2pair vs straight scenario can yield a higher equity for the 2pair than in the 2pair vs flush scenario, because the former can include something like an additional BDFD that the latter can’t.
Sorry for the confusion.
This equity tool has some features that might make it easier for you to learn.
I guess I just realized that a 2pair vs straight scenario can yield a higher equity for the 2pair than in the 2pair vs flush scenario, because the former can include something like an additional BDFD that the latter can’t.
Sorry for the confusion.
I think that would be the short answer, BDFD is around 5% additional equity. You can even visualise as 1/4 * 1/5 = 5%
[ ] thread delivers.
Not a big solver guy .. but how does a 'straight making' card block a two-pair hand from improving? Only if you assume that the holding includes other connecting cards 'more often' and thus is sharing cards with the V.
While a flush draw is pretty straight forward, the different approach you should take with each of the various straight draw possibilities can make or break your profits in PLO .. and is one of the last spots that new comers come to realize. Failing to consider 'outs' v 'nut outs' is a stack wrecker!
Plenty of newbies think an OESD is 'a wrap' .. OK, sure .. it's a two-card wrap. We love the newbies who say they had "A set with a wrap".
Do you have a 3, 4, 5 or 6-card 'super' wrap? Holding 4589 on a 67K Board is a Super Wrap.
There are cases where only one card (the lowest) of an 'inside' 3-card wrap should be considered a clean out. JT98 on a 8QK Board only provides the nuts with a 9 (or A) while most Players think this is the most amazing spot ever until they get 'too much' action and get clipped!
I'm sure I have a decent grasp of solving concepts .. but my point is that your 'ability' (equity/outs) to improve doesn't necessarily mean your ability to win the hand improves at the same rate. GL
In the appendix of Strategies to Beat Small Stakes Plo from Matthias Plum he provides a table of common hand vs hand scenarios. Vs. a straight he lists 2pair with having 24%. Vs. a flush, however, with only 19% (with 2 cards to come in both cases).
So I put it into Omaha Equilab as follows:
The first results are still a bit surprising though, as you'd imagine that a straight comes, on average, more often with cards that block a 2pairs outs to improve and would therefore perform better vs. a 2pai
The big thing in the example I kept is that you didn't include suits and a flush beats a straight, and a backdoor flush is usually estimated at roughly 5%. Eg.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8s7d
PLAYER_1 Td7s2d2c
PLAYER_2 Jd9d2h2s
820 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
Td7s2d2c|19.5122%|18.7805%|1.4634%|154|12|
Jd9d2h2s|80.4878%|79.7561%|1.4634%|654|12|
[/table]
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8s7d
PLAYER_1 Td7s2d2c
PLAYER_2 Jc9d2h2s
820 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
Td7s2d2c|23.9024%|23.1707%|1.4634%|190|12|
Jc9d2h2s|76.0976%|75.3659%|1.4634%|618|12|
[/table]
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8s7d
PLAYER_1 Td7s2d2c
PLAYER_2 Jc9c2h2s
820 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
Td7s2d2c|24.8171%|24.1463%|1.3415%|198|11|
Jc9c2h2s|75.1829%|74.5122%|1.3415%|611|11|
[/table]
