1/2 PLO, Top set and straight river card, river decision
The villain is marked as bad player. A bit stationey and peels wide.
I thought this river decision was close bet a few different options. bet and call a shove, check and call a shove, check and fold to a shove.
Hero has 100BB
Villain 1 has 100BB
Villain 2 has 40BB
Preflop: Hero has K♦ K♣ 7♦ 7♥ in MP
Hero raises to 3.5BB, CO calls, button folds, Sb calls, BB folds
Flop: K♠ J♦ 6♣
Sb checks, Hero bets 11.5BB, Villain in CO calls, SB folds
Turn: 4♦
Hero bets 25.9BB, Villain calls
River: 9♥
Hero?
I just have trouble putting the villain on a reasonable hand that they can get to the river with that doesn't include QT or diamonds (I block diamonds). Is this river close or is this just an easy shove and if the villain got there, then so be it?
8 Replies
Yeh I'd probably be checking here - while I don't think he has bare QT here, there's a ton of QT combos with something else that would make the turn call. Furthermore I don't see getting value here from anything other than JJ, and maybe JJ raises somewhere along the way.
Check and cross fingers .. why didn't you go pot on Turn with the increased equity/flush blockers?
We're assuming V is one with 100bb .. yes? GL
Check but if you wanna bet Lets say KKQ or KKT then bet small don’t shove
Since I play just 5 card my feel for hand values is gonna be a bit off but here’s how I would look at it:
You bet 3way on the flop and full potted the turn so ranges are strong/condensed and IP will have more QT. Vs a shove you’d have to fold at least half your range, maybe more cause IP just has so much QT and just not many bluffs.
You have a few bluffs you cf, then you gotta fold some made hands too. Any KJT/KJQ/KK with T/Q or without diamonds gonna be better than this hand. So in gto this will likely be a close fold.
Since it’s close, let’s think if there’s any factors we can help us decide?
What would the bluffs be in this spot? Kx with diamonds, maybe some AKQ with diamonds. Is villain the type to always bluff those as he should or would he sometimes chicken out and miss the bluff? Based on our feel for how the earlier streets went, do we think he’s weighted even slightly to either portion of the range?
Villain is pretty qt heavy but xc is better than jam as we allow villain to bluff. Block bet is an option, even though i think xf likely better (against pot).
I would also consider check-raise turn.
This is really Villain dependent. Bet half pot / fold would be my play vs. an average passive/sticky player.
I would have potted the turn.
Fold pre.
Sorry. Jk.
I think that betting 1/2 and folding is just lighting chips on fire. Is villain sticky enough to call flop and turn with smaller set? If so, I think they are happy to check river. They may have JJQ or JJT and turn their set into a bluff, but if so, you just fold and live with it. I think population is just more likely to check back their set on this river. Yeah, check/fold is probably best option.
