1/2 PLO Rivered Nut flush facing river c/rai on paired board
Villain is a good player.
I am not about about a few spots here.
Hero 180BB
BB 125BB
Villain 200BB
Preflop: Hero has A♣ A♣ K♥ 2♣ OTB
Villain raises to 3.5BB UTG, Co folds, Hero 3 bets to 12BB, Sb folds, BB calls
Flop: T♦ 9♣ 3♣ (pot 36BB)
BB checks, Villain bets 18BB, hero calls, BB folds
Turn: Q♥ (Pot 73BB)
Villain bets 24BB, Hero calls
River: T♣
Villain checks, Hero bets 40BB, Villain shoves, Hero?
I am trying to work on these river spots where I miss bets. Is this a bet/fold, a check back? Should I just pot the river?
I am wondering in some of these spots if my smallish bet induced villain to shove?
4 Replies
Fun spot .. maybe.
So you raise PF and get Donked into with a Player behind. I can see some frequency of piling it in with AA and nut flush draw, but also flatting here is a bit of pot control.
Interesting down-size on Turn, but the Board got worse and we only have 1 pair .. call.
Not so sure you're 'missing' a bet here .. what's calling that you beat? Both the Flush and Board Pair don't really encourage a Straight to cry call IMO. And a simple Tx hand is only calling as well as a bluff catcher. So, yes, I think you're inviting some bluffs but are mostly beat here when holding the Ace of Flush.
IMO it's OK to just take some Showdowns .. not every hand needs to have action on every street.
You're calling 80 to win 280 .. are we good 22% of the time? Not sure.
I don't totally abide by the 'Don't bet if you can't call a raise' mindset, but in this case my issue is that we're certainly not getting better to fold (as played) and we don't get called enough by worse. to take the risk of reopening action to V by betting. GL
PS .. It's interesting that this is going to be quads more often than middle boats. It's possible that Player dynamic would lend itself to putting Hero on a Flush draw and allowing them to go for value, even on a paired Board, thinking that a Donk- weak Bet- Any Bet line is just too strong to get a lot (or any) calls.
I actually think we can bet the river for value (assuming we don't have the kc as the graphic shows we have the ac twice) but our hand really looks the nut flush in villains shoes after we pick b60. He probably calls some lower flushes and maybe kqj/kj with a club, but we have to be very mindful to but some boats into this line (which we should have a fair amount of if we are 3! properly) so we don't just always show up with the nut flush as our strongest hand. As a sidenote, I don't hate the idea of running the turn with the king blocker but think call is probably better.
I think we just have to fold facing the all in, unless we have a history with the villain that suggests he's capable of turning a hand like qj9x into a bluff or is enough of a spazz to shove worse for value which seems insanely unlikely given that you say he's a good player. I think we call our nut flushes when they block a pair and always when we have a ten and the nut flush.
Answer, do you really think villain is donking top set for half then downsizing turn to 1/3? I'd expect to run into qt/t9/99 type hands more than flopped top set and rivered quads.
if we're blocking the payoff flush (king) then it's a fold, otherwise we can call
V downsize on Turn brings two things to mind ..
1) The Q completes two straights .. could be a bit of a blocker bet for pot control. In my games even 33 could 'probe' bet this Turn and then sigh call-off if shoved into.
2) It's possible that V is setting up a River sizing that would be closer to pot. GL