giving up the betting lead on river when the nuts did not change
i'll give an example hand for this but was mostly curious about the general concept, as i don't recall ever reading anything about it or hearing it addressed in theory.
how often and under what circumstances do you want to check the nuts when OOP on the river, when you previously had the betting lead and the nuts did not change? intuitively, it seems like a play that should be used rarely, but that doesn't mean never.
for example, i played a hand recently in a game that is primarily NLH, with one hand of PLO per orbit. 6 handed, called a raise from BB with QJ98ss, saw the flop three ways.
flop T94r with one of my suit, i lead for 50 into 80, PFR folds, bad straightforward reg on button calls.
turn 8d putting out a flush draw (i have no diamonds), i lead for half pot, he calls.
river As and i check.
this player is not a PLO specialist, tends to be aggresive when checked to and i have seen him value bet a lot of mediocre hands in spots where a good player would not (sort of typical NLH player trying to play PLO type stuff).
6 Replies
This seems more like a player specific exploit rather than a theory thing. Against this opponent, c/r seems good especially if he's sticky.
Against most opponents, you bet, more so when there is more than one straight possible. Against a player who isn't mindlessly aggresive you give up so much value here by checking.
A badish reg who's more of a NLH player may even raise the 2nd nuts on the turn to a 50% bet, which is perhaps an argument for checking river. But he probably has a bunch of two pair combos, which he'll check behind. It's hard to see him bluffing since he's most likely got showdown. My understanding of the theory is that since the nuts haven't changed you should be betting small but I'm not 100% sure.
A lot depends upon whether the board texture allowed V(s) t be playing draws that are often going to bet as the missed draw has no showdown value or only hands that will be happy to see a free showdown.
It's about balance. You're certainly not going to want to barrel twice and then give up on the river a bunch. You're also going to be value-betting a set or some combo hand that can be convinced to give up the river or pay off light. You'll also have the occasional ~78J that you choose to c/c the river with. And maybe you've got the occasional c/r bluff with AJJ8. Lots of great reasons to have a checking range in this sorta spot.
When playing against a player who often bluffs his missed draws.
It's about balance. You're certainly not going to want to barrel twice and then give up on the river a bunch. You're also going to be value-betting a set or some combo hand that can be convinced to give up the river or pay off light. You'll also have the occasional ~78J that you choose to c/c the river with. And maybe you've got the occasional c/r bluff with AJJ8. Lots of great reasons to have a checking range in this sorta spot.
Oh I said the opposite of what I meant, you ARE going to want to barrel twice and give up a bunch of rivers.
