3578

Interesting hand.

I'm going to start off with something old school. About 15 years ago Jeff Hwang wrote "Pot Limit Omaha: The Big Play Strategy." At the time it was the newest and best ideas put forth about straight draws. I read the 2+2 blog section yesterday and still see people that could benefit from reading sections of a 15 year old book. So my point? The moment I looked at your hand, my first instincts were to say that at a full table having this straight draw where you have the open ender and the "bottom" card is problematic instead of great.

Okay on to the way I like to handle bomb pots. I start by saying everyone goes to the flop randomly with equal equity before looking at the flop so nine player to the flop is everyone with about 11% equity, even if less than 9 players at table it is best to write it this ways for illustrative purposes. Then look at your hand and decide where you stand if the other players currently stay "mostly" random. I think your hand and this board have to taking somewhere between 1-2% equity from the other eight random players and 1% seems a little low and 2% seem a bit high so let's split the difference and say you gain about 1.5% equity from everyone "mostly" staying random. This hand is a good example of why I say everyone else at this point is "mostly" random because there is an ace on he board and anyone with an ace in the hand is better off than anyone without an ace as there are no over-cards or over-pairs to an ace. Therefore everyone is "mostly" random at this point, but on ace boards, not all randoms are the same. So giving you about 1.5% on average from the other eight players has you at about 23% equity (started with 11% + 1.5% times 8 players = 23%) at this point keeping everyone else "mostly" random. But and this is important, if you stopped here you would be getting a very incorrect view of things. You currently have about 23% equity and the other eight players are all in the "mostly" random ranges of 8.5% - 10.5% equity, but this is just a place holder. You now need to see who likes or dislikes their hands and get these other players from random to something more detailed. Every time I write one of these it ends up a lot of words just to get to this point and rest is normal posting length.

V1 has a marginal type bet-fold hand
V2 has a hand strong enough to raise
Hero is in a lot of trouble if V1's marginal hand is sharing or blocking Hero's outs.

You cannot tie a flush in Omaha. You have to use two cards in your hand. You have a 8 high flush draw with your 87hh. The board is A9hh. that leaves hearts of KQJT65432. There are four hearts higher than yours and five hearts below, but is V1 or V2 betting or raising a heart draw lower than yours? Probably not unless it is a combo draw. So long story short if anyone is sharing or has better straight draw and/or has a set and or has a combo draw or set+flushdraw or flushdraw+straightdraw, then you are in very bad shape. V2 has you totally crushed unless raising light. A $25 bomb pot contribution turning into a $1,000 lost is a huge mistake, although often seen.

I appreciate blue.feet writing it all out, but I only need to look at your hand to know this is an instant fold. Even if you "get there" you could easily be behind. Yes, you might win, but it's not worth the price to find out.

If you are positive V1 will fold and you want to go for it, just gii now.

If everyone sees the flop for free, your hand standards have to be a lot higher. Normal preflop action filters out the junk. KQ66 rainbow and KT82 with nut hearts and so on. Pitch your hand immediately and gratefully