Bluff Last 155 to Win 1425?

Bluff Last 155 to Win 1425?

Live 5-5

BTN straddles 10
SB folds
BB calls 10 (2k stack)
UTG folds
MP [Villain] calls 10 (810 stack)
HJ [Hero] raises to 55 with Kd Qh Jd Th (2k stack)
CO folds
BTN calls 55 (2k stack)
BB calls 55
MP calls 55

Villain is a fish that's stuck. But he generally respects me.

Pot 225
Flop Kc 9s 6h

BB checks
Villain checks
Hero bets 125
BTN folds
BB folds
Villain calls

Pot 475
Turn 5d

Villain checks
Hero bets 475

Villain tanks, then says, "You raised pre-flop. Do you have the straight: 78. Or do you have AA? I have top two: K9."

Villain calls 475

Pot 1425
River Ad

Villain checks

Bet his last 155 or save it?

) 7 Views 7
09 December 2024 at 03:08 AM
Reply...

26 Replies

5
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Unless he has demonstrated before that he can fold to such a small bet in relation to pot, we have to assume he cannot, right? Particularly so given he has a "made hand" rather than a missed draw.


by bigoilboomer k

BB (2k stack)
MP [Villain] (810 stack)
HJ [Hero] (2k stack)
BTN (2k stack)

I'm not saying it is easy to do in game, but when there is one player a lot shorter than the rest, it would be best to try and get this person all-in on a street earlier than the river. You only cbet about 55% of the pot on the flop and thereby created this small amount left on the river instead of betting 2/3 pot, 3/4 pot or pot. I don't know if you usually use those larger sizes heads up on flop, but then size down multi-way, some players do. But one way or another I would have chosen a flop bet size to make it a two street instead of a three street game against the smallest stack if it goes heads up and I have a legit hand on the flop to make such a bet.

Thereby I realize my equity all-in on turn, not worrying about the possible runout or whether to save a few extra dollars on tiny river bet. Or I win with him folding on turn.

Also when someone gives a speech in middle of hand, don't believe that crap. It is Chrlie Brown time and all you should hear is, "wah wah wah wah."


by blue.feet k

Thereby I realize my equity all-in on turn, not worrying about the possible runout or whether to save a few extra dollars on tiny river bet. Or I win with him folding on turn.

Do you think you do not realize your equity if there is a small amount of money left on the river? Also, isn't it the same for both players? I'm not saying you should try to leave a 10% pot bet left to the river, but it rarely matters.

And yes I'd put the rest in now.


by amok k

Do you think you do not realize your equity if there is a small amount of money left on the river? Also, isn't it the same for both players? I'm not saying you should try to leave a 10% pot bet left to the river, but it rarely matters.

And yes I'd put the rest in now.

I don't give a bag of dicks about this particular hand. I'm saying to target the small stack to get the person down to two streets instead of three streets. It is how it is done. And you don't have this person screwing up the remaining streets if another big stack had also called flop. The amounts could be different, but getting small stack in on an early street is the point. Also flip things around and the villain saves his last 155 on the Ace scare card instead of you having him all in on the turn. These tiny tweaks improve your win rate bigly.


by bigoilboomer k

Villain is a fish.

Don't let the fish potentially get off the hook for his last $155 on river by incorrectly sizing your flop bet. River scare cards happen. Be able to put him all in on...wait for it...the turn.


I am not getting the point really. You will realize equity, he will realize equity. Is it possible that it's sometimes better to have money left on the river so that you can bluff? Fish comes in many forms.


by amok k

I am not getting the point really. You will realize equity, he will realize equity. Is it possible that it's sometimes better to have money left on the river so that you can bluff? Fish comes in many forms.

I'm don't know what to tell you. Try to pretend away me saying, "realize equity" because it looks like it has you chasing your tail around in circles like a dog. How about we try this instead, stack size matter. As stack sizes get shorter you don't keep on playing three street poker, you reduce it to two street poker. I can't make it more clear and simple than that. Also hero "potentially" made an weird 55% cbet sizing (but some people size down multiway), but if hero had cbet around the usual 3/4 pot size cbet, then this thread wouldn't exist because stack size matter and villian's less than 100bb starting stack would be in on the turn.

And I could keep going on. If you bet 75% of someone's remaining stack on the turn, they might call thinking they want to see that river card and if it isn't what they need they fold on river and try and build that 25% left back up. But if you bet 100% of someone's stack on the turn, then there is some non-zero percent of the time they fold and you win the pot. People don't talk about fold equity as much anymore but it is huge. There is no need for me to go further you are already getting to focus on the wrong stuff.

Stack size matters. Villain started the hand with less than 100bb. 5-5 game and 10 straddle is on and Villain has 810.


You don't need to tell me anything. We agree that stack size matters, but probably think differently how it matters.

You are saying that it's better to play 2 street poker than 3 street poker because of... something? You realize equity! They fold! Consider the possibility that it's not so black and white.


I like the idea of flipping to the villain's perspective. He may try to "save" 155 and fold if I shove the river. (He can beat nothing, except exactly what I have.)


These spots with a small leftover stack seem to happen a lot in PLO. I'd rather not be that guy wasting 15 seconds with every bet-sizing decision just to avoid these spots.


by bigoilboomer k

I like the idea of flipping to the villain's perspective. He may try to "save" 155 and fold if I shove the river. (He can beat nothing, except exactly what I have.)

Exactly. I would try to bluff it, though of course sometimes you also have the best hand.


I would probably jam, it doesn’t have to work that often. Somehow from his perspective we have a straight or top set.


I usually punt it in and it's probably fine but it genuinely might be a mistake to punt it in every time here.


I hesitated for 10 seconds on the river. At that point I figured the hesitation would make my hand less credible. So I checked back. He won with K9 (which he was very shy to turn over).


by bigoilboomer k

I hesitated for 10 seconds on the river. At that point I figured the hesitation would make my hand less credible. So I checked back. He won with K9 (which he was very shy to turn over).

That's why you always balance your range by waiting at least a few seconds when you've got it. When you've got bluff, think 'how would I play value'; when you've got value, think 'how would i play bluff'.


Another fun question to ask, just for the hell of it, is should you have bet or checked the flop with only one backdoor flush draw. Your opponents, which are several, have to have something to continue. The value (or more so playability) of your hand goes up a lot if you would have had two backdoor flush draws. But with only one backdoor flush draw, it might have been a check, although getting the button to fold on the flop and get you absolute position for the rest of the hand would be nice.

0 backdoor flush draws...check flop
1 backdoor flush draw....???
2 backdoor flush draws...definitely bet the flop


Seems pretty standard to take 15 seconds on any decision when the pot is very big.


Yeah I mean if you feel like you cannot bluff anymore after thinking for 10 seconds you are doing something wrong, somewhere. Probably not thinking enough in general?


by OmahaDonk k

Seems pretty standard to take 15 seconds on any decision when the pot is very big.

Agreed. However, the remaining bet size is tiny. If I had a straight, set, or top two, I'd shove it in immediately.


You would need to tank some with aces up.


by bigoilboomer k

Agreed. However, the remaining bet size is tiny. If I had a straight, set, or top two, I'd shove it in immediately.

...and do you now understand why that is wrong?


by blue.feet k

Another fun question to ask, just for the hell of it, is should you have bet or checked the flop with only one backdoor flush draw. Your opponents, which are several, have to have something to continue. The value (or more so playability) of your hand goes up a lot if you would have had two backdoor flush draws. But with only one backdoor flush draw, it might have been a check, although getting the button to fold on the flop and get you absolute position for the rest of the hand would be nice.

My default 3- or 4-way with only one person with position on me is to bet flop, even with no backdoor flush draws. I'm pretty solid, so I like to rep top set where I can if it's close between a bet and a check. It's probably not incorrect to check the flop with one backdoor flush draw.


by amok k

...and do you now understand why that is wrong?

I get what y'all are saying: take a few seconds for every decision. I just like to play fast because it's better for the game. I know it costs me some EV.


by bigoilboomer k

I get what y'all are saying: take a few seconds for every decision. I just like to play fast because it's better for the game. I know it costs me some EV.

Well, stop doing that

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