[100PLO5] Bottom full house facing river pot bet in 3 bet pot
In game I put him on QQTJ9 or something similar.... I perceived villain as nitty. I feel like if I fold here I'm basically folding everything unless I have QQ myself, or perhaps Q88 or something like that... Maybe fold pre is valid... Maybe shove turn... Any thoughts are appreciated.
7 Replies
What do you make of the smaller sizing on the Turn? While QQ is pretty happy it does bring in diamonds to protect against .. unless they have diamonds too.
What is your definition of Nit? I don't think a lot of Nits are betting draws, even 'super' draws with a pot sized bet on the Flop. It's more likely 88 or 87 with a strong draw.
Is this Player really that 'scared' of a Q and flush draw coming in that they go 45% pot on Turn because they no long have nut draws or didn't improve?
The Turn is your talking point here .. and how often, probably not very, does this Player spaz from EP on this River? GL
He is in BB, I'm SB... On the turn I thought he'd bet like this with some kind of made hand + draw. It looks like he really wants to keep me in the hand and build the pot at the same time, so that's how I put him on QQ + wrap.
Regarding me pegging him as a nit, he was fairly unknown and hadn't gotten out of line, probably just reg rather than nit... Although this hand in hindsight may influence my perception of him.
Interesting to note: diamonds+uberwrap can be a favorite against any hand on the turn...
Raise the flop , as played I'm mot folding river
I don't think you can should fold river as played.
Both flop lead or xr seem ok (I can't see exact stack sizes, xr does seem awkward this depth though, especially vs full pot).
River lead is also an option (even block sizing), Hero wants to get paid from 2p combos and trips that mostly xback.
raising flop seems suicidal, getting it in vs wrap + overpair I'm a huge dog, or for example the same 2pr + wrap or open ender... tons of scenarios where I get it in as a big dog... vs a naked wrap I'm flipping as a small dog...
I'm more of a fan of raising turn vs what could be a weak bet, where I can now be a favorite against some hands at least
Yes if the money goes in you're probably a small dog or flipping.
But in many cases you get to fold a hand with equity .
I thinks on the turn , most of the hands that bets have you in bad shape , so raising the turn is not so good imo .
Calling all way puts you in the guessing game all the way , while not many cards give you a comfortable play as the situation you are facing now on the river .
Yes if the money goes in you're probably a small dog or flipping.
But in many cases you get to fold a hand with equity .
I thinks on the turn , most of the hands that bets have you in bad shape , so raising the turn is not so good imo .
Calling all way puts you in the guessing game all the way , while not many cards give you a comfortable play as the situation you are facing now on the river .
Agree. A premium hand pre-flop gains equity on this turn from flop; Hero would do much better taking a more aggressive line on flop, but might get it in drawing near dead on the turn. There are only 3 clean outs to the 8 high straight. Villain is a lot more likely to make an incorrect fold against flop raise, even if its not until a later street (and Hero can profitably turn Jx into a bluff to rep the nut straight sometimes)
I don't think villain should have a huge number of folds to the turn xr on this action. They will mostly be lower-equity hands with good blockers for bluffing the river but the hands that do call will have mostly easy decisions on river. The trouble river hands for villain would be some number of 2p combos and non-nut straights against Hero jam (hands like q7, q8,22 and 96 that had nut redraws).
