QQJ9 trips against a thinking player

Fold.

Do you need to bet the flop, and do you need to bet 2/3 rather than 1/3?

His value range is 9T+. It's hard to find a bluff for him given you have K9 in this range and he's c/ring and firing 3. He'd have to have some hell of a read to think you're just airballing. I think maybe your turn read is wrong - either that or he's just firing 3 against you just for kicks. You're right that he's going to have mostly value and some semibluffs in his flop c/r range but your range is similar but stronger and he's still just chucking big bets at big cards.

My turn live read needs to be pretty strong to make that call. Not just that I'm good, but that he'll check the river / I'll call another river bet. I rarely back my live reads that strongly.

mostly agree with Wazz here; I don't think Hero should have any 2/3 psb sizing on this flop

what does a read of not-that-strong mean? what are the worst hand you think villain xr flop with? does it include 4xxx, and lots of more pure and low-equity bluffs?

this is a spot where I wouldn't expect a live NL player to have nearly enough bluffs, and a tight turn fold seems mostly ok for that reason

if your read was villain was weak on turn I guess you are getting an ok price on the river, and maybe even chop - he could be clicking buttons and not really know the correct strategy for different blockers, but this is a spot where both you and Villain should have lots of strong hands by river, and he isn't even choosing a polar sizing, which I think most likely makes him more value heavy

Hes an NL guy playing the one plo hand an orbit. Hes either playing very face up nl type mentality where he could have AA here and sometimes these players will have absolute air. Its pretty player dependent, this is a clear fold against normal plo ppl.

when i say not that strong i mean i think he often does not have a 9 at all and has some combination of boat blockers / diamonds / just getting out of line.

i don't know if my player description was clear enough, but i think this guy definitely understands PLO enough to know that a worse 9 is not a value bet on this river. my thought process is that once i flat the flop, he probably thinks i have an overpair or maybe a 9. once i call turn, he probably thinks i have a 9 but not a great one (which is true). i do think he is capable of following through on the river and trying to push me off that hand if he is semi-bluffing turn. i think his river value range is pretty much what wazz suggests, T9+.

One problem with calling is hero having QQJ blocks a lot of villain's more natural turn semi-bluffs, which means I think it is hard for river call to be profitable unless villain is way too aggro with AxDD and KxDD. He should also want to check/call and check/giveup some hands, giving Hero a chance to bluff; t9/94/ and 44 should mostly not be leading for his sizing. So A9xx for example, should probably give up on the river often, but find a few calls based on the sidecard blockers and unblocking nut diamonds.

River feels like a spot where either villain feels like he can disrespect Hero's play because Hero is overfolding on multiple streets and/or making other big mistakes, or Hero is overestimating villain's PLO skill, especially at only one hand/orbit. Is Villain defending correct ranges from BB? seems like an important question as the looser he defends, the more bad bluffs will be in his river range

for example - is villain really trying to bluff out Hero's 9xxx with 60% sizing?; I feel like your decisions with non-boat 9x on this river should be fairly straightforward, especially after calling large turn raise - this is not a spot where Hero obviously even has a lot of 9xxx combos in range that should be folding or is pretty indifferent, so it shouldn't be a reason for villain to be overbluffing imo (in reality, vs in meta)

Is villain's strategy trying to fold Hero off AAxx and AKxx hands that did not hit nut flush? That would be a good example of NL logic translating poorly to PLO, and not understanding what Hero ranges should look like to call turn.

Feels like OP is missing some important piece of information - villain only needs to be bluffing or v-betting worse 27% for Hero to call river profitably, so this is a how far off from that frequency do you think he will be based on reads? Just call if something feels weird, because it seems like its hard to be more than a 10-20bb mistake on average, which is on the lower/affordable side on mistakes (imo, fordeep-stacked to super-deep stacked games so my philosophy is different).

Seems like Hero's biggest concern is being exploited for overfolding (and perhaps related, not bluff-raising / light-raising enough), but there are plenty of corrections for that on other streets.

If you are folding the river here, should you have been folding the turn? Not very many river cards you'll like more than this one.

Or are we assuming villain has a lot of turn bluffs with which he won't bet the river?

Bet sizing is so interesting in PLO. While 25 seems weak/probing at some tables it's viewed as thin value at others. I don't see why 40-60 is an issue here as we are playing deep and we should get a narrower range of callers.

Typically a c/r here is 44xx. 9xxx (prob A9/K9) or AA/flush .. it's a Showdown hand a high percentage of the time.

I don't really like having trips with a pair in my hand since outs to improve go from 10 down to 6 .. certainly having an over-pair is better than an under-pair but your ability to improve is reduced. That may also be a reason to go more conservative with Flop bet sizing.

TBH I might fold Turn often as the King is an over-card and a strong Player continues to bet out. Anything to make of this bet sizing from this Player?

AP you actually do improve on River but again a strong Player is betting out. I don't think this is 44xx anymore as that should be a x/call here.

What do you think that your 'pauses', especially on Turn, make him think you have? Are you ever under-repping your hand?

Seems pretty heady, or he just doesn't respect your game, for him to have too many bluffs here. There's no wrap to c/r with on the Flop and unless he just doesn't give you any credit for a 5-card Showdown this is a 'middle' boat most times. Just can't see an A9xx Showdown from a thinking Player. GL

I think the decision to fold was on the turn, and the T on the river is pretty bad for us, even though it helps us, by being more in his range.

I need a table read or to know the player better, but I probably just fold the river. It's tough, though, given our raise pre and bet/call on the flop. Our hand looks exactly like AA or a weak 9.

I would call the floor immediately if you have 9h in your hand and 9h also comes on the flop. Should be a dead hand.

heh, yeah, must have been 9c on the flop as i definitely had two hearts.

results: i called and he had AK43 with AdKd. seems like the kind of hand that a NL player would be tempted to bluff with (blocking the boat on flop as well as A9 / K9) when it actually has a pretty mixed interaction with my potential range, as it removes a lot of overpairs and flush draws and weights me more towards a 9.

i agree with folks who said turn is probably the time to fold more so than river, and i certainly contemplated folding turn. i do think that my thought process on flop and turn gave him the sense that i was capped here and incentivized him to keep bluffing. i think that although this player is pretty competent, continuing to bluff all three streets here is more of an "NL play" for reasons that i can't quite spell out - something to do with NL ranges involving fewer hands and equities being further apart. but that, combined with my sense that he might be pushing to make something happen after losing a couple pots recently, nudged me over to calling down. (i avoided mentioning some of this in the OP because i was wary of confirmation bias and didn't really have this read fully formed when the hand started.)

Kudos to him for following through. It was a good bluff -- he's unlucky you got sticky and just happened to have a 9 😉

Another problem I have with your play is that it might be hard to tell your live read apart between 'doesn't have a 9 and I'm crushing' and 'has a 9 but really doesn't like that K'.

If his read is that your turn call is kinda weak, then I quite like his play; he needs to have some bluffs and his is probably the perfect hand to do it with as he blocks your K.

If the river blanks off and he fires same amount, are you calling?

i think so, yeah. the T doesn't really change our relative hand strength much at all. we now beat A9 but lose to T9 or TT if he somehow has that, everything else is the same. i'm probably slightly more inclined to call on a total brick.

Something I under-looked in initial post was villain didn't xr pot on flop, which in hindsight is technically problematic.

His actual hand combination is an OK combo to xr; though call is still probably better (too strong to turn into a bluff).

Similarly, the turn is a card where he picks up enough equity that he may not want to keep barreling.

With villain's exact hand, I think potting river is a lot better than the sizing he used, but it's also ok to give up, as its a good card for Hero range, and Hero is getting a good price to call down with AAxx.

Interestingly, villain could also choose to xr turn or river as an excellent semi-bluff.