Flopping a set but turn brings in a flush
What % should we keep betting after flopping a set if turn brings in a flush heads up? My reason being that a check back often times gives away what you have as you will be continue betting when your flush hits a decent %. How often you should bet turn knowing your opponent could raise some portion, but probably won't.
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Indicators to barrel a flopped set when the flush comes in:
Lots of straight draws still, such as a JT6 twotone board and the 5 turn fills the flush. If your fllop bet was just called, that raises the likelihood they've got a naked straight draw. When you barrel the turn against that hand and they fold, that's a better result than giving them a free hit to beat you.
It's top rather than bottom set. Given people sometimes flat sets on the flop, or dry two pair, barrelling top set and having mid or bottom come along with you is fantastic. Even better when it's a sticky two pair that has a high flush blocker. Barrelling bottom set in such a spot obviously yields far less ev because of this and can even set you up for a nasty surprise when they're slowplaying better.
Their turn raising range is narrow and nutted and not bluffy. Them only raising when they have the nuts, not having the stones to c/r bluff big with the nut blocker, and flatting their non-nut flushes and some sets and folding all their straight draws is a phenomenal result for us.
When our image is straightforward, we sell the idea we have a flush when really we have a set, meaning we're pretty likely to get paid on a board pair. With a high flush blocker we also have the option to turn our hand into a bluff on the river.
Lastly, stacks. It's not great to bet a size on the turn that commits us to a +ev call on the turn, unless some of the above conditions are well-satisfied. What we generally like doing is barrelling turn a small sizing that gets value from their sets, folds from their straight draws, and implied odds against their flushes.
