Turning top pair with busted flush draw into a bluff
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PL Omaha 1(BB)
BB ($203.66) [VPIP: 54.2% | PFR: 29.2% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 25% | 3Bet: 16.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 33.3% | Hands: 25]
UTG ($101.71)
HJ ($114.15)
HERO ($314.08)
BTN ($107.13)
SB ($42.85)
Dealt to Hero: Q♣ 2♦ A♣ 9♦
UTG Raises To $3.50, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $12, BTN Folds, SB Calls $11.50, BB Calls $11, UTG Calls $8.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [0.64 effective]
Flop ($48): A♦ 4♣ K♣
SB Checks, BB Checks, UTG Checks, HERO Bets $14.85 (Rem. Stack: $287.23), SB Folds, BB Calls $14.85 (Rem. Stack: $176.81), UTG Folds
Turn ($77.70): A♦ 4♣ K♣ 5♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $48.80 (Rem. Stack: $238.43), BB Calls $48.80 (Rem. Stack: $128.01)
River ($175.30): A♦ 4♣ K♣ 5♠ 8♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $170.80 (Rem. Stack: $67.63)
Thoughts? I bet small on flop hoping that SB would raise all-in and I wanted my bet to be small enough that his all-in would reopen the action. My play certainly looks like AA. He almost never has a straight, and I'm hoping to get a fold out of some random 2 pair hands and maybe even 44.
5 Replies
No idea if this is solver approved, but I would:
Preflop: Just call (9 suit and 2 dangler makes it too weak to 3bet)
Flop: well played
Turn: Bet pot (we can call a x/r raise and want max fold equity)
River: Bet 1/2 pot (villain's range is capped to mainly 2 pairs, save money on your bluffs)
fold pre
hmm ... the problem i see with your thought process (small flop bet hoping sb jams):
you have the ace, and the nut flush draw, so who is jamming what? if he had kings, dont you think he would have jammed pre, with his small stack?
therefore, i'd bet bigger, so i can put max pressure on the turn with another big bet (in case of a blank), to take it down right there in case the flush doesnt come in
then, on the river:
this is not solver approved, just my thoughts from playing gazillions of live hands:
if i see that bet (after the amounts you bet on flop and turn), i automatically think: bluff
i mean, you were betting small(ish) twize, and all of a sudden you pot it on the river?? wouldn't you want to get value if you had aces? looks to me like you're trying to buy/steal, and i call there (i'd rather fold to another half pot bet, bc it smells like value then)
I think the less than 1/3 psb on flop is kind of goofy. One issue is the Q and 2 aren't clean outs for 2p. Would rather put more pressure on villain's strong and medium strength hands. As played this also seems like a bad runout to triple barrel.
Also -not a huge fan of turning this hand into bluff vs fish on river, especially because aq still has showdown.
In 4way pots on dynamic textures, Hero should not have that many small sizes, and they should often be split between monsters and weaker hands w/ strong blockers. This exact combination is interesting in that it is strong enough to check back or bet half/pot.
Preflop wouldn’t 3b. You’re not pushing equity so I guess this is a bluff. Hand isn’t linear enough to fall in value. Given the preflop stats they will call with any PP so pushing out better hands pre that can’t call a 3b doesn’t appear possible given the cold calls. So is this a bluff? If you had A2cQ9d it would make a better 3b but this combo isn’t good enough and is nutted enough to just call pre given the dynamics. I’d prolly fold tho if I anticipate a 3b.
Post is interesting. In theory you only have small bets multi-way but you have a less than 1 effective SPR and this hand has no issues getting it in vs any hand outside KK with a FD and SD (KKQTcc, KKJTcc) which in theory may be in a 3b cold call range but not likely given the stats and dynamic in the hand history. Just pot and get it in with an effective SPR of sub 2. Hand isn’t strong enough to slow play. You would need AA with NFD to slow play. You also have the BDFD. Run it.
As played turn is fine. It’s effectively a blank and we should be potting.
River I’m not sure. I wouldn’t get here this way but you’re really only hand is AA. There’s a special dynamic here as well where the A of the FD is not on board so it’s more likely you have a missed flush draw with just the A pair. So your value is AA, KK with an A FD, or A with a missed FD but some kind of 2 pair. Villain has to figure out what he beats/blocks. If I had aces up with no clubs as villain I’d call against a capable player and win some and lose some. If I had KK I’d call and win vs all except AA. He most likely had some kind of busted **** draw tho like a KQT type hand with lower clubs. I wouldn’t be surprised if you were bluffing with the best hand.