Questions About River Stats

Kind of curious why no one's taking the bait on this. Is the answer too simple or not generally thought provoking enough? Or is it the opposite and requires too much thought for a 2+2 post? I think its these sorts of questions that provide great insights into the overall mechanics of the game, perhaps i am wrong. Maybe im zooming in too far and there really isnt enough value in asking these sort of questions.

I think it's a bit too deep. It's way too much for me to think about to try to answer, but I don't have online stats and I don't keep stats like this for live 😉

Maybe you could write it out as math instead of sentences so it's easier to follow?

You might want to consult a coach or sign up for online training for a little while.

You aren’t taking into account the size of the pots. You may be winning 40% overall on all river calls, but losing all the river calls over 50bb in total pot size but winning all the ones below, and facing much more river bets at lower pot sizes.

In general, population tends to underbluff in large pots and over bluff in smaller ones.

So this is kind of the first assumption I made. Assuming this is the case, its safe to assume I should be doing more folding on river in larger pots, or maybe the real issue is im overcalling flop/turn with too many marginal draws and being "forced" to make more river call-downs, or maybe im simply too loose preflop. I know its kind of a rabbit hole to see this one stat and go as far as possible with it, do you think it is worthwhile (going this deep generally) ? Or should i just tell myself "X/F more rivers" and wrap it up there?

Understood! IDK about the math thing though i think that would deter people, maybe im biased because the math is the thinking i dont enjoy doing. Coaching is probably the way to go, although i dont think im quite ready to be a good coaching client.

In general, below PLO200 I would be very very selective on calling river bets and lean towards over folding in this node.

The other way to counter this is by overfolding in earlier streets so your river range is much stronger. Fold your marginal EV hands on the flop and turn, as at the lower stakes the average players hands they bet with are stronger and more merged and less polar than they should be when IP. Players more routinely bet with hands like top 2 no back up instead of check back, and bet less often with draws and the weaker portion of their range.

Thanks, I appreciate the detailed response. Do you feel population is behaving similarly in river donk nodes? I assume there isnt really a population read on this and it will be heavily dependent on player-type. Any insights with that?

Depends on villain.

Normally the check call check call donk river is extremely strong.

However some villains are capable for example donking on nut changing rivers with their missed draws.

Again, I’d always lead to overfolding river bets. You want to be the river bettor, not the caller, at lower stakes and majority of the time in general.