5-10 PLO middle set OOP vs good player
Playing 3 handed. One of the players is a bit fishy, so I am sitting in.
Villain I have marked as good.
Hero 100BB
Villain 100BB
Preflop: Hero has 8s 8d 7d 5s in BB
Btn raises to 3.5BB, sb folds, hero calls
Flop: Qh 8c 2d (7.5 BB)
Hero checks, Villain bets 5.6BB, hero calls
Turn: Ac (18.8BB)
Hero checks, Villain bets 18.8BB, hero calls
River: Ks (56.3BB)
Hero checks, Villain bets 56.3BB, hero?
It feels weak to fold here. Though I have no blockers to the straight. Could villain be value betting worse?
Not sure what to do differently here. I thought I might c/r a low turn card or a diamond that doesn't complete a straight.
What are you doing differently in this hand (if anything?)
6 Replies
Played fine, just a disgusting runout.
Just gotta decide if he’s taking 2 pair for this line. If not just a trivial “man that runout sucks” fold
I could see myself flicking in the call here but it's not gonna be more than like ~20% of the time.
I'm wondering about a turn c/r. He's obv gonna be barrelling an ace a lot, so what does our drawing c/r range look like? Is he gonna feel compelled to stack off with bare AQ? I suspect that hu he's gonna have enough hands to make a turn c/r better than a call.
Ouch. Any reads? You played it so passively it's hard to believe you have a set, but the runout sucks. I can go either way -- table read for me.
This player usually tends to have it and might view me as a bit of a station. But thing is, I do have pretty close to the top of my range in this spot.
Not really?
You can have a ton of hands here and I’d much rather call with a hand that both blocks the straight and or sets. Think J988, AQ88, T887, etc.
This is no where near top of range and this is just a sick runout. Call if u think he does this with 2pair more than 33% of the time, fold if you don’t.
I think river fold is fine, but I'm tempted to xr flop.
Idk turn; I think call is probably better than xr. And against some opponents river call is also ok or winning. I feel like river is going to be underbluffed though - maybe some whiffed club draws like Atxx/Ajxx? some t9xx, j9xx,
But this sizing should be polar vs merge, and villain should be checking back a lot of 2p.
