KK884
5-5-10-20 PLO. So in this hand villain usually pots strong hands and bet folds small bets with marginal stuff. Around 4k eff
Hero on btn with KK884 with K8cc and no hearts
Hero opens btn 50, all 4 blinds call
Flop (250) : 9c8h5c
4 checks Hero 125, SB and BB call
Turn (625) : Jd
Check, BB bets 300 hero calls BB folds
River (1225) : Qx
BB bet 300. Is this a good bluff spot? Sizing?
5 Replies
Yeah I'd back your read and make it like $1800+. Every chance of getting this through. Given how often you end up with KK blockers on this runout (rarely), unblocking q, t and 7, and the difficulty of him having KT here, you're in quite a strong position.
Yeh 1800 is good I just wonder how often he tanks and thinks you might have clubs and calls.
Interesting spot. I find these are more dependent on villain ie. is he capable of folding a Qhi straight here.
Having clubs suck.
I’d much rather have TT here than KK
That said, I’d make a play based on my read. People are less believing of opponents backdooring the nuts which is why they are so profitable and get paid so often. I don’t like bluffing the back door when they come in though for this reason. You just hear too often “IF YOU GOT IT YOU GOT IT”.
So ask yourself, is he capable of folding.
As for size, you have the live dynamic where betting less looks like I want a call and thus is more value-ey, which is hilarious to me but oh so true in live games, so I’d bet like 12-1500 if I think he can fold.
Calling isn’t the worst too for the information. You only have to be right 1 in 7 times? If early in session the information of how thinly hes value betting in this line may be worth it for future value.
And hey sometimes you just win.
And I’m also not convinced this is an open in this config with the 4 dangler so as always
Fold pre
A few things.
I think the half-pot sizing is incorrect 5way; even a bare 67xxx may fold to a large bet from early position. And it seems kind of close between xback and large bet.
Villain's turn sizing for less than half pot is unusual for this texture. Maybe T7 or QT with some kind of strong redraw? Setting the price with unimproved 76?
While I understand bluff-raising on your read, this might be pushing it a bit too much. Hero realized his equity, relatively cheaply. One problem with the raise is whether Hero can really credibly have enough KTxxx combos that bet the flop, since good sidecards are required and hands as strong as KJTxx could check back.
