5-5-10/20 PLO live: 3 way spot, deep

Remember this heuristic.

Queens hate sevens

All you have to remember when you have Q hi hands.

Hand is a pip too wide to flat and should be a fold pre.

Flop I XR if im playing this hand. I have a nutted out but non nutted back door and only one. My hand isn’t strong enough to beat 2 players nor navigate a multi street runout. UTG range will struggle to find enough calls here and is put in a tough spot and will incorrectly fold IMO hands they should call. My hand is very weak but has some equity to strong hands and blocks the strongest UTG hands on this board like wraps.

Turn as played, dry side pots aren’t that valuable but this is I guess the 2nd best card? Not sure what you can scrape value from tho. UTG is capped heavy and shouldn’t have many calls here, especially into a dry side. Trying too bluff an overpair off the hand maybe? If he has any decent one or a draw he shoulda check raised the flop to push you out the hand so it can’t be that valuable.

Let’s see spoiler now

Again im just not seeing how you are getting value here vs any competent player or how you even have the best hand when called. You win with Q7 here?

I guess I’ll be putting some time in Aria this WSOP. Kings lounge may have to be put on hold 😂🤣

Since I’m getting lots of good advice from you here’s some back:
Aria games during WSOP are very different, reg infested, long lines, etc … off season much better

I cannot envisage a world in which I call an allin with a dry gutshot getting 5-1.

Well, I (of course) agree with that, but that’s not just a dry gutshot in my book, tons of Backdoor stuff going on that changes it enough (at least for me), not saying that it makes it 100% correct, bug think it can only be a minor mistake (if even that)

QJT7 can make the second-largest possible wrap that is all nut outs; QJ87 can make a 20 out wrap, which you can't get unless you have Q-7 separation. I'd say aces hate 6-9s more than Qs hate 7s.

Honestly I never quite intuitively figured out why Queens hate 7s. I thought just like you did and assumed we can flop some monster wraps but solver just hates them. 8 is the cutoff for Q hi rundowns single suited.

Guys, appreciate all the input, seriously, and mostly agree.

But (and this not me trying to defend my play, just wanna get more serious input):
How much do we deviate from optimal play in these games, where people clearly play anything but gto, but far wider ranges.

Are we not loosing money when not adjusting also?
And, if so, how far?

Would really like to see what solver thinks the EV loss is for each of those, as that seems more pertinent to the question of whether we should play those hands versus real opponents than just whether they're folds.

The lowest and best QJT7ss is about a -15bb/100 loser and each worse variation loses more as the hand gets worse combinatorially

This is in a high rake environment which is most live low stakes as well. The lower the rake the lower the EV loss

Now to answer pokerbros question

The answer is directly correlated to how big the mistakes the whales are making post flop. Are they making mistakes greater than -15bb/100 often enough to outright make playing a hand like this purely profitable? Not only that, you have to factor you are splitting the whale loss rate between all profitable players at the table, assuming there are any. Also, you have to factor in you have to know how to play GTO in order to only expect the -15bb/100. If you don’t know GTO, then it’s arguable your loss rate is higher and you need to capture a higher loss rate from the fish to turn a profit. In order to do so you need to know GTO, in order to know the proper exploit to implement, all while preventing you yourself from becoming exploitable.

It’s all a bit nuanced but the gist is, you need a player who loses big enough, and you need to know enough GTO in order to implement the proper exploit in order to capture the losing players EV, while avoiding the good players exploiting you back.

This is pretty trivial in most games and quite easy as long as you know the baselines. Quite difficult tho if you are just winging things on intuition.

I think if you bet the turn, larger would be better. You want to deny equity, and could potentially scoop with a pair of queen vs all-in player. River is a good value bet, villain should almost never have a better made hand unless he rivered a set.

Calling flop bet likely ok, though maybe is a bit dangerous since we can turn dominated flush draw vs other (non all-in player) and have some reverse implied odds.