QQJT

There's a lot to consider for the flop kr. Board texture tends to favor our range, I think. There's enough stack depth for it at SPR ~16. We have a good candidate in hand with top pair, overpair, nut gutshot, 3rd nfd. Features that don't play better in kc. But the config and villain read strengthen his cbet and have us tighen up kr accordingly. I don't know how much but also doubtful this hand is anywhere close to the line. I can imagine that smaller pp or not holding the Th would make better candidates but that's pretty nitpicky. On balance I think I'd also choose raise but interested in what others think. I'm raising less than pot, however. Generally aiming B75 (here 265) but 250 seems fine to me given the tight config and he bet just a little bigger than needed.

OTT I'm leaning barrel into the undercard brick. I'm unclear whether the absolute value of our QQ should drop this combo into check but guessing no. At this SPR, not close to either 4 or 1, I think geometric sizing has advantages over full pot, the largest being we have a more substantial third barrel when needed for bluffing. Anything 400-500 does the job here.

As played, I'm also unsure whether to fire the overcard K given our depth. But I'm leaning yes because even though it loses, it loses a lot less than checking.

Very interested in others thoughts on this one. Thanks.

In another recent post by this poster, I mention being out of position deep being really bad for whichever player is out of position. In this thread, we are the one out of position and facing the most trouble trying to navigate the hand.

I'm going to simplify things into two tracks.

In track #1, I don't raise on the flop. I might fill this in later with my thoughts.

In track #2, I do raise on the flop. As a stack-to-pot ratio nerd, if I do raise this flop I probably do it in a way that might help me later in the hand. So just like Munga30 above, I don't raise full pot here on the flop. What I do is minimum raise the flop. And poof, the stack-to-pot nerd in me is happy because I am on the turn with almost exact an SPR of 4 which is two pot sized bets left and two streets left. I pot the turn hoping to win the hand right there although I'm not saying this brick turn helps or doesn't help me win the hand on the turn uncontested. Lots of stubborn villains are not folding AAxx when there is no flush completing or straight completing card on the turn. On the river I probably just give up and check.

I don't like a flop c/r at all. We're 300bb deep oop in a 3bp vs a tight player. Are we trying to get him to fold AA+nfd ott? We've got 4 very clean turns and can probably continue on 100% of turns.

As played raise flop and bet turn much smaller so you can actually cram the river. I don't like river with this sizing and would probably just give up.

In game, I would simplify this flop decision to either check-call or check-raise as leading here seems like a far worse third choice.

Again in game, I would have decided to leave the check-call track blank for now because I saw something reasonable in the other decision.

I think the check-raise seems okay, as I have us at almost a 60% - 40% favorite on the flop versus all AAxx. However, to keep things manageable, I would raise the minimum. You can't raise any lower than the minimum. And it creates a nice SPR of 4 with two pot size bets left and two streets left. I'm happy with the flop check-raise choice, especially as almost a 60%-40% favorite. The turn is the real nightmare of this hand. What the hell do you do when you don't improve and you figure your opponent is tight and most likely only has AAxx? Are we describing villain as very tight preflop thereby he has AAxx, but are we also describing him very tight enough to fold AAxx postflop unimproved on the turn after we raise the flop and bet big on the turn? I don't know. That is some serious fold equity you created if you get him to fold. And I don't like in wazz's description of the villain having "AA+nfd" because that is just a small percentage of all AAxx. But in my original post, I did address that I'm not saying this brick turn does or doesn't help hero. How often do any of you guys think you can get AAxx to fold the turn after you raise the flop. If you think it is never, then probably don't bet the turn, but if you can get AAxx to fold even a litt bit of the time, then it is huge.

The turn is the real can of worms in this hand, in my opinion, not the river.

You should 100% be firing here with all 2 pairs for value.

The fact you have the Q hearts is great as you unblock the NFD which should be in his range if he just called.

Give up with your NFD and fire these lower flush draws for the triple barrel. Majority of live players would have jammed turn with any decent hand. Only a very select few can call off the river here at the appropriate frequency given SPR.

I prefer raising flop against this player type you're talking about. But I don't like this sizing it to pot, it just does so many things wrong. As you see, you pot the turn also, then on the river there wasn't enough left to make a sizeable bet. That's why you wanna go about 3x-3.5x raise on the flop, so like 240 instead of 340. Then on the turn, like 400 into 580. Then on the river, pot is like 1380 or something, then you can make a pot size bet and expect him to fold.

Had you used those sizings, yes I certainly would have followed through on this river.