Not sure where to go from here
I used to play full time for 5 years until I moved on to trading stocks and crypto with hopes of multiplying my roll. After battling for 3 years barely with any profit showing, I had enough and decided to get back in the poker streets.
Started April 1. 10-12 tabling 1/2 PLO across ACR, Ignition, and ClubGG
So far after 300 hrs played, I’ve made $45/hr. But I’m on a 12 buy in downswing right now over the past 2 weeks of grinding (I know it’s standard, but I feel disgusted)
Just been getting angry/not enjoying playing now and scared to give back my profits as I’m not in the right headspace to make the best decisions.
Played with a variance calculator based on my current winrate, and the results have shocked me.
Who would actually want to endure this type of pain lol. Imagine having an edge, yet still having a 50% chance of losing 5000BB over the next 100k hands. This is insane.
Anyway I’m writing this thread to hear some insights, whatever they may be, as I now feel lost with no other direction in life unsure of what to focus on next. I have a deep bankroll where I don’t have to do anything for the next 5 years but I feel completely stuck with no options in life right now
Appreciate any advice anyone can give me, as well if there’s any plo crushers who have time to talk about your experiences, would be greatly appreciated as well.
Thanks guys
3 Replies
I mean, downswings are just a part of life if you're playing poker for a living. You learn to accept it or do something else. I played professionally for 7 years, but now play part time and the stress is much lower. One thing I've found to be helpful is to scale back and look at the last several months or even years and realize how much of a blip your current downswing is.
Dropping 10, 20, or even 50 buyins is very painful at the time, but not so much when you see that you've won 1000 buyins over the last couple of years, and your current downswing is just the price you pay for that.
Yeah, I can see poker being more rewarding part time when you play out of the enjoyment rather than the need.
What do you do now?
You need to shift your perspective and zoom out some. Right now you're looking at only the money bc you're losing a very very small % of your networth/BR back you're hyper focused on that. Meanwhile you just said you can live comfortably for the next 5 years wo doing anything and you're good. So you're already in an amazing position and sounds like you got there from poker when you played as a pro, so start with recognizing how blessed you are to be in the position you're in where you can easily afford to be on a downswing for a semi long stretch
I'd also suggest either taking an extended break or find a hobby you like doing and when poker sucks just quit sometimes and go do whatever you enjoy. Go on a vacation in the middle of the week(which most people can't do). Go for a hike in nature in the middle of the day while most people are trapped in some office. Do things that allow you to reap the rewards of the work and risk you've already taken on so you can see the benefits of the work even if you potentially lost 5 buy ins today
Also realize downswings like this are the gate that keeps 99.8% of people from being a poker pro and allows you to do what you do for a living. If downswings didn't exist anyone and everyone could be a poker pro(in theory). There's lots of people that play fairly well when things are going good and completely fall apart when things go against them. Downswings ultimately benefit you, they funnel the money to the players that play well when things are going good or bad. If you were allowed to get mad and start potting any 4 cards and win long term, you wouldn't be in the position you're in now so be grateful for downswings and how much money they've provided you overall
Thank you for the time you took to give that advice. The main thing for me was looking at the variance calculator and realizing that I’m technically running “good”
Just kind of worried what if I run bad, then it won’t even be worth it to continue playing. But if I know I can make $40/hr playing then I’m happy to keep grinding and trying to move up stakes
Great advice on the perspective shifts, I need to practice gratitude to be able to do what I want everyday… it’s just scary feeling like I’m not progressing everyday/have no plan B
"Imagine having an edge, yet still having a 50% chance of losing 5000BB over the next 100k hands. This is insane."
Nick Frame aka TcfromUb quit poker (preflopwhiz creator), maybe live poker in houston texas is the answer?
But my next question would be in regards to the model. Did you get that model from the primedope website? What is the difference between downswing stretch and extent here?
Im asking this because i want to know what the downswing stretch/extent/deviation looks like in live poker. On average per hour you get 25-30 hands per hour, and your using the variable of money won per hour (such as the 45/hr mentioned above)
So the question im trying to answer is whether the amount of hours i am playing is normal or irregular to encounter a downswing in, just for moral purposes and to see if there are any leaks in my game.
