Are we supposed to value bet this?
Hero MP (100 deep) holds TT87 ds clubs and hearts
Villain with a rather loose range and do not bet/raise without a strong hand.
LJ, HJ fold, Hero opens, everybody folds and the Villain on BB calls.
Flop Heads-up (8 BB) KdQsJc rainbow
Villain checks and I decide to take a stab 50%, because we are blocking the nut straight and I have a really tight image.
Villain makes the call.
Turn (16 BB) 9c and the Villain checks.
Seeing the call on flop I barrel again 2/3 of the pot and the Villain calls. That call tells me that the Villain is holding a set or 2 pairs. He could not possibly slowplay ATxx like this in my opinion.
River (about 36BB) blank 5c.
Villain checks and I check behind, but I am relatively sure that we should actually bet here for value?
15 Replies
It sounds like we run basically no risk of being bluffed and since we block him having a straight we are targeting KQ/set I'd just make a pretty exploitative bet and go 12-14bb to make it really hard for him to fold
Any ten beats you. If you’re not worried about being bluffed bet tiny but I think I check back.
He has backdoor clubs
Oops. Yeah bet small to target straights.
Don’t like flop bet
Don’t like river check in this line
You need a bit more of a hand to bet this flop, but I don't think it's a big mistake against those who don't play well vs cbets.
River valuebet is mandatory. You've bet two streets already and backdoored a decent flush. You will also have lots of bluffs here, including trying for half the pot with a straight.
Surprised at the flop check suggestions. Seems like a great combo to have in bet bet bet line when the nuts don't change across runouts. As should happen more frequently on this texture. My guess is you want a little less equity (eg no gutshot no bdfldr) but I don't mind punting those away with a bet fold, particularly given the read.
As played, we turn enough to take our hand out of our bluffing range. Problem is what we made isn't particularly nutty, lots of combos have us pipped for better straight, so we aren't eager to put a lot of money in despite having some equity. But we also block nuts and still have that read. So ok to bet this hand but smaller, like B50. Wouldn't hate a check given the read either as we expect pretty honest play on the river and keeping the pot smaller keeps the size of our river mistakes smaller.
As played, given we block our best calls, I'd rather check back and realize. If we can expect a ton of honesty, despite the river check, maybe bet small and quickly fold if raised as an exploit.
Surprised at the flop check suggestions. Seems like a great combo to have in bet bet bet line when the nuts don't change across runouts. As should happen more frequently on this texture. My guess is you want a little less equity (eg no gutshot no bdfldr) but I don't mind punting those away with a bet fold, particularly given the read.
The solver bets 1/2 pot 26% here, checks 74%. If we're against someone that can fold 2 pair by river and potentially even a set to a psb I like betting flop way more than 26%. Keep in mind this is vs a GTO player but vs a very straightforward player that will never bluff us and will always let us realize our equity anyway if he can fold as strong as 2pr we end up pushing him off a lot of hands that beat us by the river. We also have basically no real bluffs other than TT on this board either
But why do you want to have very low or no equity when you have plenty of slightly better bluffs to choose from? Consider the possibility of not bluffing such hands.
But why do you want to have very low or no equity when you have plenty of slightly better bluffs to choose from? Consider the possibility of not bluffing such hands.
That's what playing exploitatively looks like, we play outside the solver suggested ranges/%. Like I said, solver actually bets this 26% anyway and worth noting is it prefers us to have BDFD triple suited aka "less equity". We have a bluff, if we get c/r on flop or turn we're happy to throw it away. If this guy is really sticky and we're gonna have a tough time moving him off KQ/KJ by river I much prefer check. I gave all my caveats for preferring to bet flop more than 26% and they're all in line with us being able to successfully get him off most of his range by turn/river assuming the board runs out blank
Yah, I think we should go for value. The fact that clubs came backdoor should be relevant. Third nut flush is generally worth a bet. The only thing that gives me pause is that if villain had two pair, he would probably fold the turn. The chance of improving is so remote, and you are so likely to have made a straight on that turn card. So his turn call could indicate clubs. But it could also be a set or a straight.
Villain is a loose player. He defended the big blind. I say we go for it.
That's what playing exploitatively looks like, we play outside the solver suggested ranges/%. Like I said, solver actually bets this 26% anyway and worth noting is it prefers us to have BDFD triple suited aka "less equity". We have a bluff, if we get c/r on flop or turn we're happy to throw it away. If this guy is really sticky and we're gonna have a tough time moving him of
Yes I read your caveats. I was just asking why you argue that it's the only real bluff, what does it mean and why does it matter (i.e why should you have "real bluffs" in this situation, especially if the reason is exploitative). Perhaps you already answered in the way you wanted.
No issues betting this flop, your blocking the str8s and not playing against a GTO bot. I'd probably size down on the turn though 33%, and I like a small 20% or so river bet, targeting sets and other middling str8s.
