How often should be bluff the naked NFB multiway?

why are we bluffing with a set? people rarely ever fold once the 4th flush card comes out let alone the 5th

Ya, I just thought of that after posting. I have SDV and outs to improve, so I should have x/b turn and realized some equity.

And as more flush cards are on the board, I'm less likely to have the flush, makes sense.

At 10PLO I wouldn't attempt this - no one is folding a flush. I think if you do I would go bigger on all streets - the good thing about betting the turn is you can never get raised and now we picked up the ability to value bet the river potentially.

You should still barrel this turn quite frequently even if there's 4 diamonds on board. It's very hard to make your specific hand, which always has outs anf should never face a raise ott. I would bet bigger, because we have deeper stacks and want to encourage his (hands he's dubious about getting to showdown) to fold while giving apparent implied odds to (hands he wants to improve, ie flopped sets).

As to river, I believe you're still supposed to keep on barrelling some of the time, but as to how often, it also depends on which cards are on board. All low cards and you can rep the nuts better. If there's kqt98ddddd on board and he somehow has the jack flush with say jj66ds, he's calling every time.

This is probably the wrong way to think about it. We get it drummed into us not to bluff fish, but it's only callstations who we shouldn't try to bluff. Even if there's lots of them at 10plo, we should definitely still be taking lots of bare ace spots. When we have turned top set with our nut flush blocker is an almost automatic barrel. It's easy to see a slightly higher frequency of call at these stakes with bad flushes and assume the adjustment you're supposed to make is never to bluff, but then you'll be passing up lots of ev.

I think it is very player dependent, bluffs in general work less at micro stakes against weak made hands, but they do work sometimes and one needs to identify against whom. Some are just playing super fit and fold, some are grinding micro stakes to stack the whales and as a result they shy away without the nuts. As you said, against calling stations it is best not to bluff.

I remember one time, this is live PLO, but it does have some similiarities as far as fishiness goes - i had the nut flush blocker and barreled 3 times against one player. The river brought the 4th flush card and he called ... with a straight! He commented that the 4th flush card made it less likely I had a flush. Well, there you go.

Interesting. On the four suit board, the solver pretty much gives up all naked Ad bluffs (only barrels 10%).

However, on an offsuit turn, the solver barrels 99% NFB + top set, while only 33% NFB w/o top set. This supports your argument that top set makes us more likely to barrel, because while we have SDV, we never get raised and always have equity when called.

However, the heuristic "continue barreling with NFB + set" only applies on the turn. We're less likely to cbet the flop with a NFB + set (because solver is raising tons of non-nut FL on the flop).

We also can get called by worse sets but by the time the river rolls off anything from a complete blank to a 5th suited card I think we get called by better a high % when we pot river. There's probably a very small % of players we want to follow thru with a river bet but this also requires us to bet 2/3 to 3/4 on turn so we can follow thru with a big PSB on river. I would use this pretty sparingly when I have the read someone is over folding a fair bit and most of the time just show my hand down

Are you saying you play .5/.10 with the same frequencies you'd play say 2/4? That certainly can't be right.

Mastermind has 4 way single raised pots. Not this exact scenario and not this exact flop. However, there is something to be learned from the sims that Mastermind offers for 4 way pots

- How often should we CB flop with naked Ad? Some, but not 100%. We should be more inclined to CB the BLNF when blocking the board cards and in particular when having T2P or Tset. We should be less inclined to CB the BLNF when having a straight draw, but more inclined to CB when blocking the straight draw. But you really want a board pair, 2P or a set and specifically the top card.

Edit: In your specific hand, I think it would be prudent to just X the flop. Your side cards dont interact with the board at all which leads to a small CB freq with the BLNF in the sims MM have. In addition I would imagine the player pool is more likely to underfold than overfold in PLO10. So imho it would be correct to err on the underbluffing side with a hand that dont even tend to bluff much in equilibrium

Mastermind dont offer the sim including the turn and river, but some points can be learned from the flop. Namely that Hero rarely CB flop without the Ad. So when we get to the turn Heros range should almost exclusively be hands with the Ad. Ie Hero is super polarized on the turn. Game theory then typically dictates that a turn CB size should be as large as possible, ie pot!. (This is what Wazz alludes to, and I wholeheartedly agree)

Personally I dont mind cbetting this turn. But if I do I definetely pot. CB50 is imo a pretty big blunder. But I imagine Hero should prefer the Kc turn to the Kd as we probably get fewer flushes to fold on a mono turn than a twotone turn, so if solver actually just XB this turn I am not overly surprised

I doubt we should barrel the river. We have SD value vs sets which should constitute the majority of the range that villain will fold. Targeting straights seems optimistic and people dont seem to ever fold a flush on a mono river

No. You develop reads, and pick spots based on population reads. Neither of that means you never bluff the bare ace. Bad players fold in a lot of spots where they should call too. It's easy to remember the crazy bad calls players makes at these stakes and translate that data into a conclusion you shouldn't bluff the population.

Against tougher players, you sometimes bluff the bare king too. We're already adjusting our frequencies by rarely if ever bluffing that at these stakes.

Bluffing with NFB depends on a few factors, but above all our overall range.

If we are opening from EP we bluff with our NFB almost always as we very rarely don’t have a suited A from such a tight position and almost all our bluffs on flush runouts come from the naked NFB.

If we are opening from LP then we scale back as we have a ton of non nut flushes and open a much wider range so if we always bluff with the NFB we are overbluffing.

Yeah that's a great point. Though with the caveat that how much we adjust our frequencies depends on how observant we think they are.